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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
334 am CDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Discussion... 
clearing skies on tap today as the upper-low that produced 
yesterdays snowfall shifts east. Significant ridging forecast to 
build aloft in the wake of the low with high temperatures prognosticated 
to climb significantly throughout the day. One of the challenges 
with this forecast package involved forecasting high temperatures 
in the middle 60s...as advertised by several guidance solutions. 
Based on current observations...this would be a 20 to 25 degree 
climb throughout the day. Considering that portions of northwest 
Louisiana and southern Arkansas will remain under significant sky 
cover...middle 60s for highs could be a stretch. Therefore...official 
forecast will trend several degrees below guidance for highs. 


Warming trend continues through middle-week as surface high builds 
across the region and shifts east by Wednesday. Southerly flow 
will provide increased moisture ahead of the next weather system 
prognosticated to progress across the region on Thursday and Friday. 
Latest indications suggest that this system will move somewhat 
slowly...allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms all 
day Thursday into Thursday night...with lingering rain showers 
across northeast Louisiana and southern Arkansas into Friday. 


Next weekend appears to be mainly dry with seasonably mild 
temperatures areawide. Expect showers and thunderstorms to return 
Sunday night as another storm system reinforces this progressive 
springtime pattern. /05/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
ceilings have become VFR across East Texas/southeast OK/western Arkansas this morning...with 
MVFR ceilings persisting across scntrl Arkansas/north central la. Believe that the 
eld/mlu terminals should become VFR between 08-11z...albeit a broken 
low VFR cumulus field. Once heating commences this morning...could see 
additional VFR ceilings redevelop across SW Arkansas/north central la in wake of 
the departing cold core low over the southeast states and persist through 
early afternoon. However...these ceilings should scatter out rapidly 
this afternoon as additional drier air filters S into the region. 
Any residual cumulus field should diminish by 00z Tuesday...with thin 
cirrus possibly spreading east across East Texas/SW Arkansas towards the end of 
the taf period. West-northwest winds 10-13kts today...with occasional higher 
gusts to 20kts this morning across north central la...will diminish below 
5kts after 00z. /15/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 59 41 72 47 75 / 10 0 0 10 10 
mlu 56 40 70 46 73 / 10 0 0 10 10 
deq 59 38 70 46 71 / 10 0 0 10 10 
txk 57 39 70 47 72 / 10 0 0 10 10 
eld 58 39 71 45 74 / 10 0 0 10 10 
tyr 60 43 71 50 73 / 10 0 0 10 10 
ggg 58 42 72 47 74 / 10 0 0 10 10 
lfk 60 42 74 48 75 / 10 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05/15