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fxus64 klzk 191146 
afdlzk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
646 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation... 
high pressure will be over the area today. Scattered cumulus are 
expected to develop. South winds will become gusty in the north 
especially in the afternoon as the high pressure slides eastward. 
VFR conditions are expected in most areas. MVFR conditions are 
expected north as the cold front enters the area late in the 
period and brings increasing chances of showers. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Short term...today through Monday 
main forecast concern and challenge this period continues to be with 
the strong southern stream system moving out of the Great Basin and 
across the forecast area over the weekend. All models have trended 
slower and further to the south with this system as it runs into 
ridging over the southeast Continental U.S.. European model (ecmwf) remains further south with 
the upper low versus the GFS/NAM/Gem solutions and with all models 
continuing to trend this way...will lean in its direction this 
morning. 


Aforementioned ridge will move to the east of the area today as 
surface high slides along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures expected to 
top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s with pronounced southerly 
flow. Clouds will thicken from the west as the day progresses but 
dry weather will prevail. 


Latest moisture channel imagery shows upper trough quite clearly 
over the Great Basin. System will continue to dig to the 
south/southeast Friday with surface low pressure forecast to move 
along a wavy frontal boundary and be located over southeast Oklahoma 
by early Saturday morning. 


Cold front will be located over northwest Arkansas Saturday morning 
with widespread showers and thunderstorms advancing across the state 
during the day. With slower movement of the system...there will be a 
chance for some Gulf moisture to return and will need to increase 
probability of precipitation across the board as upper low develops in the base of the 
advancing trough. While thunderstorms are expected with this 
system...deep moisture return will be limited with instability 
marginal resulting in a suppressed severe weather threat. 
Temperatures will be tricky on Saturday with areas of the northwest 
likely seeing highs early in the day. Surface low moves northeast 
across the state Saturday night and will be located over the far 
northeast corner of the state by Sunday morning with cold front over 
the eastern part of the state. 


Upper level low will move across the state on Sunday and be located 
near Memphis by Sunday evening. Impressive cold pool associated with 
this feature and as moisture wraps around the system...snow is 
expected to mix with the rain across the north and western parts of 
the forecast area. Heavy snowfall seems to be zeroing in across 
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with The Little Rock County 
warning escaping any significant accumulations. Still would not be 
surprised to see some accumulations on grassy surfaces but warm 
ground temperatures and timing of the system preclude any winter 
weather headlines at this time but will keep a wary eye on the 
western and northwest fringes of the forecast area. Will likely need 
a lake Wind Advisory Sunday as breezy conditions expected with upper 
low moving across. 


Ridge of high pressure will build in from the west on Monday. Will 
need to keep minimal probability of precipitation in early over the east as system pulls out 
but cyclonic flow will keep temperatures below normal on Monday. 
Overall mav/mex numbers look reasonable and are generally accepted. 


Long term...Tuesday through Thursday night 
upper low pressure systems will be over the East Coast and the 
western U.S. With ridging over the Mississippi River valley. The 
ridge will move east Wednesday and low pressure will strengthen over 
The Rockies. This low will move across Texas Thursday and into 
Arkansas Thursday night. 


Models are in good agreement...though more moisture shown on GFS. 
Clear weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night under the 
influence of high pressure. Moisture will return Wednesday on the 
back side of the high. Will bring small rain chances into the west 
Wednesday afternoon...ahead of approaching low pressure in West 
Texas. Increasing rain chances spread across the state Wednesday 
night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms continues into Thursday 
night. Associated cold front will be slow to move across Arkansas 
Thursday prolonging the rain chances. Near normal temperatures are 
expected through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Batesville Arkansas 70 46 61 34 / 0 30 70 90 
Camden Arkansas 73 47 63 37 / 0 30 70 80 
Harrison Arkansas 69 45 50 30 / 10 40 80 90 
Hot Springs Arkansas 72 47 59 36 / 0 30 80 80 
Little Rock Arkansas 72 46 62 36 / 0 30 70 80 
Monticello Arkansas 73 47 67 39 / 0 20 70 80 
Mount Ida Arkansas 72 47 56 35 / 10 40 80 80 
Mountain Home Arkansas 69 45 55 31 / 10 40 80 90 
Newport Arkansas 71 46 63 36 / 0 30 70 100 
Pine Bluff Arkansas 73 47 65 38 / 0 30 70 80 
Russellville Arkansas 71 46 55 34 / 10 40 80 80 
Searcy Arkansas 72 46 62 36 / 0 30 70 90 
Stuttgart Arkansas 72 47 65 38 / 0 30 70 90 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 




Aviation...51