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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas 
653 am CDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Aviation... 
low clouds have cleared out across central and southern Arkansas this morning. 
IFR ceilings were noted at khro and expect conds to improve by middle 
morning...with MVFR/VFR ceilings expected Thursday the remainder of the period. 
Elsewhere...sct-bkn clouds will affect the area today with VFR 
conds prevailing. Surface winds will be north/northwesterly at 5 to 15 kts. /44/ 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 321 am CDT Monday Mar 15 2010/ 


Short term...today through Thursday night 


Cloud cover continues to be dominant across much of the natural 
state this morning as low level cloud layer remains strong in the northwest 
flow aloft. This will continue to be the story for the start of the 
work week...along with additional higher level cloud cover streaming 
in from the SW due to the upper level trough to the SW. This trough 
will pass to the south Tuesday...keeping any precipitation to the south of the 
state. 


Later in the short term...another upper shortwave will dive south 
out of the plains across Arkansas Wednesday...with the potential for rain 
returning to the state. Keep probability of precipitation fairly low at this time as any 
rainfall amounts are expected to remain light due to limited 
available moisture. 


Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected later in the short term 
as upper level ridging and srly surface flow return to the region. 
Temperatures will remain at or just below normal through middle 
week...then warm above normal Thursday. 


Long term...Friday through Sunday night 


Surface high pressure will be situated to the east of the forecast area on Friday...with warm 
southerly flow in place. Moisture levels will also be on the increases ahead of a 
new cold front that will push through Arkansas Friday night and Sat. Both the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) remain in good agreement with timing of the frontal passage and precipitation 
chances. Instability is forecast to be limited ahead of the fnt for 
organized strong/severe storms...but will continue to monitor trends. For 
consistency...kept probability of precipitation in chance Cat for now. MOS temperatures seem 
reasonable. High pressure will build back into the area for sun. 
&& 


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$