319 
fxus65 kfgz 200404 
afdfgz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
900 PM MST Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis...a dry northerly flow aloft will bring clear skies to 
northern Arizona tonight. Cold and breezy northeast surface winds 
are expected to develop along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim 
tonight. Fair weather is expected Saturday through Monday...with a 
warming trend for Sunday and Monday. Another storm system is 
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 
Discussion...showers and thunderstorms over Gila County have move 
southeast this evening. Will update forecast to remove thunder...but 
still leave slight chance of showers over the White Mountains. 
Surface dewpoints are 15 to 25 degrees lower this evening than last 
evening over much of northern Arizona. Surface gradients and winds 
aloft will become northeast to southwest overnight. Some areas along 
and south of the Mogollon Rim could see breezy to windy conditions 
develop. This will keep the boundary layer well mixed and prevent 
temperatures from dropping much below last night/S readings in many 
locations. 


&& 


Portions of previous discussion /230 PM MST/... strong north to 
northeast flow trailing this disturbance will bring locally windy 
conditions to areas along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim tonight. 


Over the weekend...a high pressure ridge will build into the 
southwest bringing fair weather. By Sunday...a strong warming trend 
will begin as this ridge finally diminishes the cold northeast 
surface winds which should remain for Saturday. 


The next storm system is possible beginning Tuesday. Models still 
feature large run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistency...but in 
general agree on a low pressure trough affecting the southwest 
during this time period. Most model runs have featured little or no 
precipitation with this feature the past few runs...however todays 
12z European model (ecmwf) has developed a wetter solution for northern Arizona. The 
forecast package this afternoon will continue with chance category 
probability of precipitation for this event. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 00z package...VFR conditions are forecast. Gusty 
north to northeast surface winds will continue tonight along and 
south of the Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for 
amendments. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public..................djo/mas 
aviation................mas 


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