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fxus65 krev 182144 
afdrev 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Reno Nevada 
244 PM PDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Short term... 
cold front has pushed into southern Nevada and eastern California 
and extended from central Inyo County across to Lincoln County at 
2 PM. Some instability has developed with daytime heating over 
Mineral and eastern Mono County per the Mono Lake web cam and a 
lightning strike over northern Nye County just before 2 PM. I have 
a feeling that a few of the cumulus could be putting out some 
brief light showers with an odd lightning strike not out of the 
question for the balance of the afternoon. However...as the coverage 
is quite low and any showers should end before 5 PM as the upper 
trough axis clears the County Warning Area I will not carry over weather mention 
past 00z. 


Tonight...east to northeast winds will continue to increase over 
the Sierra crest with surface high pressure building into the 
western Great Basin. Model 700 mb winds increase to 40-55 kts by 
middle evening and persist until Friday morning. Gusts 80-90 miles per hour will 
be quite possible overnight before winds begin to ease off as the 
700 mb wind support wanes by around sunrise Friday. 


Friday and Saturday...a ridge settles over the region for sunny 
skies with high temperatures rebounding to above average by 
Saturday. By Sunday...winds will be on the increase as a system 
tries to break down the upper ridge. However...temperatures will 
remain mild. All in all...a very nice weekend indeed! 


By Sunday night...there are already discrepancies as to the 
strength of the ridge breakdown with the Canadian ensembles 
supporting the European model (ecmwf) with a stronger system while the GFS and NAM 
have a weaker system. For now I have made little change other than 
to bump up probability of precipitation slightly Sunday night. If the system is stronger... 
winds will have to be raised with breezy conditions possible Sunday 
afternoon and evening. Snyder 


Long term...Monday through Thursday... 
system moving into the Pacific northwest Monday may drop into the 
Great Basin Tuesday morning. Models have differing tracks...so 
there is uncertainty in temperatures and rain/snow chances for 
Tuesday through Thursday. Overall made only minimal adjustments to 
the forecast. 


The GFS solution favors a track over Idaho and Utah...with a tail 
end of the front brushing areas east of Gerlach-Fallon line. The 
European model (ecmwf) track brings the low over northeast Nevada with a front 
affecting the Sierra and all of western Nevada. 


What the models agree on is the surface flow will turn to the 
north-northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night for cooler temperatures. 
The European model (ecmwf) solution would bring temperatures several degrees below 
normal /50s Nevada valleys and 40s for the Sierra/...and unstable 
conditions for chance for showers. The GFS solution is dry with 
temperatures dropping to near normal. 


For Wednesday and Thursday...conditions to warm back above normal as 
a short wave ridge builds into the West Coast. GFS is faster on the 
warming than the European model (ecmwf) since the core core is well east of the area. 
The flow aloft turns back to southwest for Thursday with the ridge 
axis over eastern Nevada as second system nears the Pacific 
northwest coast. Brong 
&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions with an increasing north-northeast flow tonight on 
the back side of a low moving through northeast Nevada. Winds at 
ridge level could reach 40-60 kts tonight...with potential for wind 
gusts to 25 kts at ktvl and ktrk tonight. Winds at krno to to 
remain between 360 and 040 tonight with gusts near 20kts through 03z. 


Winds aloft relax tonight...with clear skies and light surface winds 
for the terminals through Friday. Brong 
&& 




Rev watches/warnings/advisories... 
Nevada...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake 
in nvz004. 


Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe 
in nvz002. 


California...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe 
in caz072. 


&& 


$$ 


Http://weather.Gov/Reno