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fxus65 kpub 202104 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
304 PM MDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term... 


(tonight and sunday) 


No significant concerns in the short term. An upper ridge will be 
building over the area through Sunday...resulting in dry weather. Cool air will 
remain over the area tonight and with clear skies expected...low 
temperatures will be below normal. However with the upper ridge moving into 
the area tomorrow the air mass will warm and highs should generally be 
around normal. 


Long term... 


(sunday night through friday) 


Expect quiet weather Sunday night through Monday night as high 
pressure moves across southern Colorado. This will allow for 
warmer temperatures with highs across the plains into the lower 
70s on Monday over the eastern plains. 


The next storm system looks to begin impacting The Rockies 
beginning on Tuesday. Models generally in good agreement with the 
track and strength of the storm system with the outlier being the 
Canadian solution. An upper level trough over the Pacific 
northwest will dig southward into the Desert Southwest and into 
the Southern Plains Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A 
lead wave will eject across Colorado late Monday night into early 
Tuesday morning with light snow possible over the central 
mountains. Main trough will begin to impact the region by Tuesday 
afternoon with snow spreading into the western mountains. A cold 
front will drop south across the plains Tuesday evening with a 
decent amount of cold air advection behind it...700 mb 
temperatures drop to -9c over the eastern plains by 06z. Flow 
behind the front turns northeast to easterly at 20 kts from the 
surface through 700 mb and providing ample upslope flow along the 
eastern mountains. Snow and lower elevation rain will spread 
eastward over the sangre Delaware cristo and Wet Mountains ranges 
Tuesday evening and picking up in intensity as upslope increases. 
Current model forecasts project the heaviest precipitation late 
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with all areas seeing snow. 
Significant accumulations will be possible along the eastern 
mountains and adjacent plains through Wednesday afternoon. The 
upper trough is quick to move into the Central Plains Wednesday 
evening with snow coming to an end from west to east by Thursday 
morning. High temperatures on Wednesday will likely occur early 
and drop throughout the day as colder air moves into the area. 
Went well below guidance values...near 50...with highs in the middle 
to upper 30s across the plains. 


Models begin to differ heading into Thursday and Friday. Ensemble 
support are split between the operational GFS and European model (ecmwf) with 
either an amplified pattern or zonal pattern. Based on how things 
have played out this winter so far...trended with the European model (ecmwf) with 
the next storm system dropping into the Great Basin by Friday. 
Expect warming temperatures Thursday and Friday ahead of the next 
storm with highs back into the 60s over the plains. The western 
and central mountains will likely see snow develop on Friday 
afternoon as the next storm approaches. Mozley 


&& 


Aviation... 


Expect VFR conditions across the area tonight and Sunday as an upper 
ridge moves into the area. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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