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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
356 PM EDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure over the region tonight and Friday will continue 
to bring dry and unseasonably mild weather through much of the 
weekend. Developing low pressure may bring a period of heavy rain 
to the region sometime Monday and possibly lasting into early 
Tuesday. Dry weather returns middle of next week with temperatures 
likely at or above normal. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
at 3 PM appears highs today fell just shy of records with temperatures in 
the upper 60s at bdl and pvd...with middle 60s at bos and only 60 at 
orh. Will double check highs next hour. 


Otherwise quiet weather tonight as southern New England remains 
sandwiched between northern stream across the Maritimes and the 
southern stream across the middle Atlantic. Weak backdoor front associated 
with short wave over the Maritimes will slip south overnight...with 
winds becoming east-northeast across eastern Massachusetts late tonight. Not 
expecting any sensible weather with the frontal passage...just a wind 
shift and cooler temperatures. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/... 
Friday... 
weak backdoor front across eastern Massachusetts and into Rhode Island will promote 
marine layer to penetrate inland across this area. Therefore cooler 
temperatures than today are expected for the morning and early afternoon 
hours. However this shallow boundary will begin to lift northeast as 
the day progresses. As a result surface winds will veer to the south 
and southwest. So mild temperatures will return to the region with highs in 
the 60s but cooler along the immediate South Coast given Ocean/Bay 
temperatures remain only in the 40s. 


For the immediate eastern Massachusetts coastline including Boston...winds will 
likely remain from the southeast keeping highs in the upper 50s and 
lower 60s. Nevertheless expecting another spectacular day by middle March 
standards. 


Friday night... 
dry weather continues as weak ridging persist across the area. 
Southwest pressure gradient increases along with surface dew points slowly 
rising. These two factors will result in a mild night with mins 
mainly in the 40s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
fairly quiet weather expected through much of the weekend. Sunday 
night through the end of the week the weather is a bit more 
unsettled with a potential coastal low. 


Saturday and Sunday...low pressure moving across southeastern Canada 
will pull a weak cold front through southern New England Saturday. 
With very dry low level air in place...precipitation is unlikely to 
develop. It should be mostly just a wind shift with cooler 
temperatures in coastal areas where sea breezes should develop. 
Weak high pressure on Sunday will keep the quiet weather in place. 
Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal during the day 
with lows 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Used a blend of available 
guidance for temps/winds. 


Sunday night through Tuesday...low pressure moves from the Midwest 
to New Jersey and then tracks northeastward nearing the 
Massachusetts coast Tuesday. There are some minor discrepancies 
between the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS in regards to the track. The European model (ecmwf) 
keeps the low moving over the benchmark and to the east of Nantucket 
while the GFS moves the low over the cape. At the middle levels...a 
strong middle level low will move off the middle-Atlantic coast and move 
northeast passing east of Nantucket Tuesday. There is a possibility 
that these two lows will be in phase with each other at some point. 
However both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS keep them out of phase until they 
are well off the East Coast Wednesday. 


At this point...there does appear to be a possibility of showers 
throughout this period. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts on both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS 
show only one to two inches for this entire period. This will 
likely occur in brief heavy rain showers as opposed to a prolonged 
period of heavy rain. Despite total rainfall amounts much lower 
than last weekend...this rain may aggravate river flooding. Several 
forecast points will still be in flood through the end of this week. 
So it will not take much rainfall to result in further rises on the 
rivers. 


There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in this forecast. Just 
yesterday the models were showing this low being an inside runner 
moving through New York state. So will trend towards this new 
solution in the forecast. 


Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal Monday and near 
normal Tuesday with lows roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 


Wednesday and Thursday...dry weather returns with cold high 
pressure. Some uncertainty Thursday with GFS indicating a cold 
frontal passage and some precipitation. Temperatures will remain 
right around or a few degrees above normal. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
this afternoon and evening... 
high confidence for VFR conditions. Gusty west winds this afternoon 
will diminish between 22z-00z. 


Tonight... 
high confidence for VFR conditions. Weak backdoor cold front will 
slip into southern New England. This will shift winds /albeit light/ to 
east to southeast after 06z. 


Friday... 
high confidence for VFR continues. Light east winds veer to southeast 
during the afternoon and then south late in the day. 


Friday night... 
high confidence for VFR continues. Light southwest winds expected. 


Outlook...Saturday through Tuesday... 


Saturday and Sunday...high confidence VFR. 


Sunday night through Tuesday...low confidence forecast. VFR 
conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain showers with a coastal 
low. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight... 
gusty west winds near shore will diminish with sunset. Winds will 
shift to east northeast late tonight...especially across northern 
waters as weak backdoor front slips southward. East swells of 3-4 feet 
will continue across the ocean waters. 


Friday... 
very pleasant boating weather by middle March standards with light east 
southeast winds veering to south southwest during the afternoon. 
Tranquil seas with small east swell leftover. 


Friday night... 
more of the same...dry tranquil weather. Winds continue to veer to 
the southwest at light speeds. Flat seas. 


Outlook...Saturday through Tuesday... 


Saturday and Sunday...quiet weather with high pressure overhead. 
Light winds 10 to 15 kts and 1 to 3 foot seas expected. 


Monday and Tuesday...seas and winds increase with an approaching 
coastal storm. Rain showers likely. Moderate probability of gale force 
winds on the outer waters. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
area Flood Warning has been extended until 8 PM this evening for 
eastern Massachusetts given many of the small rivers and streams remain in 
flood. This will likely have to be extended given latest trends. 
However many rivers have fallen into minor flood except for the 
Taunton river in Bridgewater...Charles River at Dover and the 
Ipswich river in Ipswich all remain in moderate flood. These rivers 
will continue to slowly recede. 


Just received an updated stage at 3 PM for the Nashua River at East 
Pepperell...which is 11.9ft. 


Please see flood warnings and statements for more specific 
information about the status of individual rivers. 


&& 


Climate... 
Boston 3/14/10 corrected minimum temperature 39f 
Boston 3/11/10 amended wind 
peak wind and fastest average 2 min wind 10kt from 060 
average daily wind speed 6.3 miles per hour 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...nocera/rlg 
near term...nocera 
short term...nocera 
long term...rlg 
aviation...nocera/rlg 
marine...nocera/rlg 
hydrology...nocera 
climate...Strauss 

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