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afdkey 


Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys 
National Weather Service Key West Florida 
1030 am EST Monday Mar 15 2010 


Discussion... 
currently... 
despite resplendent sunshine covering our entire 
region...temperatures are in the middle to upper 60s across the island 
chain. Surface wise...a weak region of high pressure (1017 mb) is 
centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with a ridge poking into 
the western straits...while another in a series of troughs in 
dropping into central Florida. Across our marine district...C-man 
station platform observations indicate northwest to north winds 
ranging from 9 knots to 13 knots at Molasses Reef. 
Meanwhile...local radars are not detecting any precipitation echoes. 
Otherwise...the Miami morning sounding reveals scant moisture (pwat 
65 inches) confined below a 2 degree c inversion based at 900 mb 
and between 500 and 450 mb. Outside of light and variable surface 
winds...moderate to strong west to northwest predominate through the 
troposphere. 


Short term (rest of today)... 
within a zonal middle and upper level flow...considerable dry and 
stable air will preclude any chance for precipitation for the 
balance of today. Weak low level warm air advection will be offset 
by a west to northwest trajectory off the relatively cool Gulf 
waters. Hence...high temperatures should top off in the lower to middle 
70s. Since the current forecast is on track...no adjustments are 
planned. 


&& 


Marine... 
the latest kbyx vwp shows northwest winds of 15 knots at 1 and 2 
thousand feet respectively which coincides with the Cudjoe Key wind 
profiler. However...the early morning Miami rawindsonde depicts 
northwest winds of 23 and 25 knots at 1 and 2 thousand feet 
respectively. Although the eastern half of The Straits and Florida 
Bay are within the cyclonic flow and tighter pressure 
gradient...expect insolation to loosen the gradient during the early 
to middle afternoon hours...before tightening once again late this 
afternoon and evening. Hence...will insert near 15 knots on the 
Atlantic waters from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and remove 
the exercise caution headline. Elsewhere...10 to 15 knots will be 
carried on all waters north of the islands including Florida Bay and 
in and around Pulaski Shoal light. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail today at the island terminals...with 
few-scattered clouds and light winds. 


&& 
Equipment... 
upper air soundings from Key West will be unavailable through March 
21st due to an equipment upgrade. You may refer to the sounding from 
Miami and/or Grand Cayman for thermodynamic data. Winds aloft may be 
estimated from the cudjoe profiler and kbyx VAD wind profile. 


&& 




Key watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public/marine/fire/digital/climate...apa 
aviation.............................Dfm 
data acquisition.....................Wah 


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