067 
fxus62 kmfl 191744 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
144 PM EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. The West 
Coast sea breeze has formed and is well established at terminal 
kapf...with winds remaining westerly until after dusk and then 
will become somewhat variable until a weak land breeze forms 
tonight. The winds for the East Coast terminals will vary from north-northwest 
to north-northeast around 20z or 21z as additional heating may help to initiate 
a delayed East Coast sea breeze later this afternoon. By Saturday 
a more easterly flow is expected across the region. 


60 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1056 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Update... 
no changes required to the current first period forecast this 
morning...with all grids in good shape at this time. 


70/dd 


Aviation discussion... /issued 739 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light northwest 
to north-northwest flow will prevail this morning into the early afternoon. 
Around 20z north-northeast to NE flow expected to develop along the East Coast 
with East Coast terminals possibly reaching near 10 knots. For 
terminal kapf west to northwest flow will develop to near 8 knots around 
17z. 


60 


Previous discussion... /issued 434 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion...a strong short wave continues to exit the Carolina 
coast with a surface low and cold front in advance of this vorticity. 
Behind the short wave, ridging is occurring. 


Another cool day is in store for South Florida behind a cold front that 
moved through Thursday. High temperatures are expected to climb 
into the low 70s to near 70 which is roughly 10 degrees below 
normal for the date, but a warming trend is on the way. The ridge 
of high pressure at the surface and aloft that is currently over 
the lower MS valley and the northern Gulf of Mexico will slide 
east today and provide a light NE flow by late this afternoon. Due 
to the cool temperatures expected again tonight and weak pressure 
gradient, a drainage flow may occur overnight, however the ridge 
will continue its eastward trek and provide an east flow on Sat 
beginning the warming and moistening trend. The ridge will 
continue eastward through the remainder of the weekend. Another 
strong shortwave that is currently over the Rocky Mountain states 
will move into the southeastern states Sunday with return flow 
occurring Sunday and Monday. Precipitable water levels are expected to increase to 
around 1.5 to 1.7" by Monday as this next front moves through. 
Timing of frontal passage appears to be Monday morning, with rain chances 
expected to increase Sunday as strong warm advection occurs in 
advance of the front, but remaining elevated through Monday as 
Post frontal rain may occur as well. Tuesday into the end of the 
week a ridge is expected to settle across the area with temperatures 
remaining near or slightly below normal expected and only slight 
chances for precipitation late in the period. 


Marine...NE swell of 2 to 4 feet will continue to affect the 
Atlantic coastal waters through tonight, but mainly the waters 
off the Palm Beach coast. Northerly winds of 10 to 20kts along 
with this swell will produce seas of around 7 feet off of the Palm 
beaches through this afternoon with lesser seas farther south. 
Seas and swells are expected to decrease tonight. 


Winds are expected to increase to near Small Craft Advisory criteria again Monday 
as a cold front moves across the area, however due to the narrow 
duration, seas may only build to around 5 feet in the Gulf Stream 
and to around 7 feet in the outer Gulf waters before subsiding 
Tuesday morning. 


Fire weather...marginal red flag conditions will exist across much 
of South Florida today with the exception mainly being along the 
Gulf Coast, and therefore a red flag warning has been hoisted for 
much of the area. Moisture is expected to be a little higher along 
the Gulf Coast as northwest winds through the first half of the day allow 
marine moisture to move in, but min rhs are expected to fall into 
the low to middle 30s for 3 to 4 hours across the rest of the region. 
The flow will become NE on Sat with the driest conditions 
occurring from the Lake Okeechobee region to the Gulf Coast. No 
watch or warning is posted yet, as duration of 35 percent or less 
relative humidity is expected to be under 4 hours. Moisture is expected to increase 
Sunday and Monday as another cold front approaches the area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 55 76 63 79 / 0 0 10 10 
Fort Lauderdale 57 76 64 79 / 0 0 10 10 
Miami 57 76 64 80 / 0 0 10 10 
Naples 53 78 57 80 / 0 0 - 20 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...red flag warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for coastal Broward- 
coastal Miami Dade-coastal Palm Beach-Glades-Hendry-inland 
Broward-inland Collier-inland Miami Dade-inland Palm Beach- 
metropolitan Broward-metropolitan Miami Dade-metropolitan Palm Beach. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for coastal 
waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, Florida out 20 nm- 
waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach, Florida extending 
from 20 nm to 60 nm. 


GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...70/dd 
short term/aviation...60/bd