106 
fxus62 ktbw 161751 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
151 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Short term (tonight-thursday)...current synoptic setup has a large 
closed low lifting away from the northeast U.S. With another 
trough moving through Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico 
and surface high pressure currently ridging over the Florida 
Peninsula. The subtropical jet will continue to stream mostly high 
clouds across the area. Some low and middle clouds should move over 
the waters and along coastal regions early Wednesday morning with 
an overrunning situation setting up. Areas along the coast could 
see a few sprinkles as a result. An upper shortwave then 
approaches the area Wednesday morning as the trough digs through 
the southeast. Have kept scattered rain chances in for the entire 
area...with most of the showers developing in the late morning to 
early afternoon hours. The rain should clear out of the area by 
Wednesday night as the shortwave clears the region and the next 
one approaches from the central Gulf. Have kept only isolated 
chances for Thursday as models are showing limited moisture during 
the day. High temperatures will remain below normal with highs in 
the middle 60s to low 70s for the next few days. Lows will remain 
near normal for the next few days with middle 40s to low 50s expected 
each morning. 


&& 


Long term (thursday night-tuesday)...fairly dry long term with 
some model differences over the weekend. Upper low over the region 
slowly opens and moves east of the area Thursday night-Friday with dry northwest 
flow aloft as fairly weak surface high pressure builds into the 
region. Temperatures continue to run 5-10 degrees below normal 
area wide to end the week. Brief and narrow upper ridging Friday 
night-Saturday with surface high pressure shifting into the west 
Atlantic for return southeast flow moderating conditions and warming 
temperatures to near normal late Saturday into Sunday. Next upper 
trough to swing into the deep south Sunday-Monday with surface 
cold front passing over the area...models differ on timing and 
strength of this system so will blend and keep slight chance 
showers in Sunday and Monday with near normal temperature Sunday 
falling back to below normal Monday behind the front. Deep upper 
trough to build over the eastern U.S. By early next week with dry 
high pressure building into the region. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue throughout the day with 
some high to middle level clouds increasing late morning tomorrow. 
North to northwest winds will veer briefly to northeast tomorrow 
morning...before shifting back to northwest by early afternoon. 


&& 


Marine...winds will stay between 10 and 15 knots through 
Wednesday morning before dropping off for the afternoon. By 
Wednesday night winds will pick up again and will remain around 15 
knots with some higher winds over the southern offshore zones. 
Seas will remain 3 feet or less but will increase to 5 feet or 
less on Thursday. 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 51 69 52 69 / 20 40 10 20 
fmy 52 73 52 72 / 10 40 10 20 
gif 50 71 48 71 / 10 40 10 20 
srq 50 69 51 69 / 20 40 10 20 
bkv 46 69 46 70 / 20 40 10 20 
spg 54 67 54 68 / 20 40 10 20 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine/fire weather...05/Carlisle 
long term/aviation...25/Davis