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fxus62 kcae 221118 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
718 am EDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure north of the area along with an associated cold front 
will continue moving away from the area today. The upper level low 
will cross the region today and tonight with high pressure returning 
for Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
low pressure and a cold front...which is currently exiting the 
forecast area...will move northeast away from the region today. 
This still leaves a couple of concerns for the forecast...from the 
upper level low and the pressure gradient behind the front. Upper 
level low will move into the forecast area this afternoon and 
tonight bringing the cold pool with it. With some breaks in the 
clouds expected this morning will see some strato-cumulus develop 
through the late morning and afternoon hours. Will expect a few of 
these to develop enough to provide a few light rain showers...with 
precipitable water values generally under one half inch do not expect much in 
the way of quantitative precipitation forecast. The pressure gradient and winds aloft of 30 to 40 
knots also raises a concern on area lakes. Winds will remain 
strong and gusty today and tonight...however believe winds will 
remain slightly below lake Wind Advisory criteria. Will continue 
to monitor but will hold off for now on a lake Wind Advisory. 
Shower chances will diminish overnight as the upper low begins to 
push northeast of the region and the loss of diurnal heating 
should also limit shower potential. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
high pressure will be building into the region for the short 
term...however the pressure gradient will remain a concern for 
Tuesday. Winds Tuesday will again be strong and gusty...with 
current expectations for speeds to again fall just short of lake 
Wind Advisory criteria. Winds will quickly subside Tuesday night 
as the gradient finally weakens and an inversion develops shortly 
after sunset. Wednesday appears to be the best day of the week as 
high pressure will nearly be centered over the forecast area with 
mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the middle to upper 
70s...slightly cooler near Lake Shores. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
few changes made to the long term forecast as models begin to 
diverge on solutions by the end of the week. Situation begins to 
change Thursday as weak low pressure moves eastward across the middle 
MS valley with a weak cold front through the Gulf states. System 
weakens as it progresses eastward with a very disorganized 
structure by Thursday night when it moves through the area. Have 
trended the remainder of the forecast toward the European model (ecmwf) as the GFS 
is very slow to eject the system. Temperatures through the long 
term will be near normal to slightly above normal. 


&& 


Aviation /11z Monday through Friday/... 
low-level drying was occurring behind the occluded front early this 
morning. Moisture associated with an upper-level low should result 
in a ceiling during much of the taf period...but expect the 
ceilings will be mainly in the VFR category because of the low-level 
drying and mixing. Instability associated with the upper low may 
help cause a few showers...but the chance appears too low to 
forecast at the terminals. It will be breezy and used the mav and 
met MOS for the wind forecast. 


Extended aviation outlook...breezy conditions are expected 
Tuesday. Widespread IFR or MVFR conditions may occur Friday 
associates with a low pressure system. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mp 
near term...mp 
short term...mp 
long term...mp 
aviation...jl