765 
fxus65 kboi 182055 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
255 PM MDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Short term...tonight through Saturday...dry forecast next two days 
as an upper level ridge off the coast moves in...reaching southeast Oregon 
and SW Idaho by Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will diminish this 
evening but will increase once again Friday afternoon...although not 
as strong as they were today. Breezy northwest winds Friday 
afternoon in the Treasure valley...with similar speeds out of the 
southeast Saturday afternoon. Cool temperatures are on tap once 
again for Friday...but still close to normal. On Saturday...maximum 
temperatures will run about 4-8 degrees higher compared to Friday with 
temperatures returning to the lower 60s in some of the lower valleys. 


Long term...Saturday night through Thursday...the upper level ridge 
Saturday night flattens and shifts east of our area on Sunday as 
advertised by previous model runs...as a rather shallow upper level 
trough moves onshore. Latest runs bring this feature inland a little 
faster...with the exception of the European model (ecmwf) and its ensemble mean which 
remain slow. For Saturday night through Tuesday we did not discount 
the ec...but weighted temperature/pop forecasts toward the faster 
models. By Tuesday night the ec catches up and model agreement is 
above average through Thursday. Sunday is mainly dry despite 
breakdown of the ridge. Temperatures stay mild although highs will 
be limited by increasing higher clouds. Sunday night through Tuesday 
the trough will bring a chance of showers and drop temperatures by 
5-10 degrees. Tuesday night through Thursday weak ridging will nudge 
temperatures above normal again while showers decrease and are 
confined mainly to our northern mountains. Westerly flow through the 
ridge will keep skies at least partly cloudy. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR will continue through the weekend with mostly clear 
skies through Saturday. Isolated showers could develop over our 
northern mountains on Sunday ahead of the next Pacific weather 
system. Northwest surface winds 25g40kt early this evening... 
strongest between kboi and kgng...will decrease to less than 15kt 
by 06z...then increase on Friday to 15g25kt after 18z. Winds aloft 
will be moderate north. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening idz014. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...bw 
long term....jt/bb 
aviation.....Jt