802 
fxus63 kpah 211134 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
634 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Update... 
updated for 12z aviation forecast discussion. 


&& 


Discussion... 
upper level system and associated surface low will 
pass to our south today and tonight. Categorical probability of precipitation for rain 
today...with a northward shift of best probability of precipitation tonight with the main 
axis rotating north. Left a small thunder chance in the eastern 1/2 of 
the area today. Think for the most part we will not see any. 
Temperatures will be tricky today. Used a blend of nam12/RUC and 
guidance to try and best reflect expected trends. Rain chances 
will linger Monday... ending in the far east Monday evening. 


Tuesday through Wednesday look dry with high pressure in control. 
Next weather system forecast to take a similar track to the one 
today and tonight. We have rain chances reflected in the forecast 
Thursday through Friday to account for this. 


&& 


Aviation... 
rain will be with US for at least the next 24 hours...as an upper 
level low passes by to our south. Biggest challenges include ceilings 
and winds. VFR ceilings should be short lived at kcgi and kpah...as 
MVFR ceilings become commonplace as we head into the morning hours. It 
will take a while longer for kevv/kowb to lower to MVFR however. 
Expect ceilings to lower throughout the late afternoon and into the 
evening hours. Winds should remain mainly northeasterly/easterly 
for most of the day...and we could even see some gusts to 20 kts 
at times. Winds will then shift to southerly after midnight...as 
a surface low pressure system moves into our area. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$