198 
fxus63 kict 211152 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
652 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 




Aviation...12z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Main aviation forecast concern will be additional snowfall potential 
across southeast Kansas mainly this morning. 


Strong upper low is currently tracking across the arklatex region 
with the surface low over east-central Arkansas. Over the last several 
hours a band of wintry precipitation has extended from northern Arkansas into 
northeast OK. Some of this activity will continue to attempt to 
creep into southeast Kansas but will struggle. Therefore fairly confident that 
we are done with IFR conditions at kcnu with just some light 
snow/light freezing rain possible through around 18z. Confidence is 
high that VFR conditions will persist across the remainder of the 
area through the next 24 hours and likely longer. 


Lawson 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Today: 


Upper low continues to spin to the south...with warmer air aloft 
spreading into southeast Kansas during the morning. This will result 
in a change from light snow to a wintry mix of precipitation... 
with full gammut of precipitation possible by middle morning and 
linger into the afternoon. With temperatures potentially rising 
just above freezing at the surface during the afternoon...could 
see transition to all rain...although evaporative cooling might 
negate that. Fortunately...it appears that lift will wane by late 
morning so amounts should be quite light by afternoon. Will keep 
headlines going through 1800 UTC given the mix and the gusty winds 
drifting the snow. Large range in temperatures with clouds/ 
precipitation keeping far southeast Kansas quite cool and abundant 
sunshine in the west with little snow to melt. Fair amount of area 
should radiate out nicely tonight with clouds on the wane in southeast Kansas 
and winds diminishing. 


Monday-Monday night: 


Temperatures quite a challenge with combo of snow/soil moisture... 
Stout inversion and light winds being offset by good insolation. 
Southeast Kansas with higher snowfall should continue to see 
lingering effects on temperatures...but of course that assumes 
rain is not significant Sun afternoon. Will continue previous 
forecast for Monday night of quite cool temperatures in southeast Kansas 
where snow should aid radiational cooling. 


Tue: 


Latest trends should a slightly faster frontal passage...but only 
tweaked temperatures slightly given marginal confidence. Main 
effect was to warm temperatures ahead of front...especially in 
western sections where snowfall was less. -Howerton 


Aviation...06z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Winter storm continues across southeast Kansas at this time...with visibilities 
near kcnu still in the MVFR range as snow bands have waned some over 
the last few hours. Do expect the MVFR snow conditions across 
southeast Kansas to continue with IFR ceilings as another band of snow 
moves northwest out of northestern OK into southeast Kansas....affecting the kcnu taf 
site before 12z/sun. Will see a general improvement in the kcnu taf 
site as sun progresses. Could see the light snow actually turn 
back over to light rain by Sun afternoon as warm air continues to 
wrapped into this strong system. 


Will see VFR conditions for the rest of the taf sites west of this 
system. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 42 24 56 34 / 10 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 45 21 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Newton 41 23 56 32 / 10 0 0 0 
Eldorado 39 24 52 31 / 10 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 40 25 52 33 / 20 0 0 0 
Russell 48 21 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Great Bend 48 21 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 46 22 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 
McPherson 44 21 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 36 27 46 28 / 90 10 0 0 
Chanute 36 26 46 29 / 70 10 0 0 
Iola 36 26 45 30 / 70 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 36 24 45 28 / 80 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ksz071- 
072-094>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$