522 
fxus63 kict 200445 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1145 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Aviation...06z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
aviation conditions continue to be Dicey across the area...with 
precipitation of all types occurring throughout the taf sites. 
Precipitation begins as rain across the area...with a brief period 
of sleet and snow ahead of the snow line. Snow will be present at 
all taf sites...with it affecting kcnu through out the whole taf 
forecast. As the storm system moves over...a prolonged period of 
snow at kcnu will result. IFR conditions will prevail across the 
area...with ceilings and visibility bouncing around as snow bands 
move across. 


Snow will end at krsl and ksln towards morning...while it sticks 
around at all other taf sites. Towards 12z snow intensity could 
really pick up at kcnu and have indicated that in the taf...but 
feel it could even drop into the LIFR and vlifr category. Towards 
the end of the period...all sites except for kcnu should lift to 
VFR. 


Billings 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 645 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Update... 
made a few updates earlier to align with frontal position and 
temperatures behind the front...as well as bringing all snow into 
central Kansas a bit quicker than originally thought. 


Billings 


Aviation...00z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
conditions have continued to deteriorate across the region as the 
cold front moves southeast. The front is now through all taf sites 
and northerly winds are sustained around 20 to 25 kts and gusting 
to near 35 kts across the region. Snow will continue to affect 
krsl and ksln. After beginning as rain at khut and kict...it will 
quickly transition over to snow by late this evening. 
Snow...moderate at times will continue to affect the region 
dropping visibilities and ceilings into the vlifr and LIFR 
conditions. Otherwise once the snow begins...IFR ceilings should 
prevail with periods of lower ceilings. 


Snow will clear out in krsl and ksln by morning...but stick around 
the remaining taf sites through much of the day. Ceilings should 
lift to MVFR once snow stops. 


Billings 


Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion... 
forecast concern...heavy snow potential across portions of the 
area this weekend. 


A classic late season March winter storm will impact the area 
beginning tonight and continuing into Saturday night or early 
Sunday. The approaching upper trough will continue to dig as it 
moves across New Mexico tonight...before deepening into a closed 
low across the Southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. The 
short range models are fairly consistent now leading to relatively 
high confidence on the system evolution over the weekend. The main 
forecast challenge is the thermal profile and strength of the cold 
advection tonight...which will impact precipitation type/changeover 
across the area. The GFS is showing more intense vertical motion 
which cools the column aloft a bit quicker. While this is possible 
the GFS has erroneous shown this before with prior systems this 
winter. For now have leaned toward the NAM on the general thermal 
profile/cold advection trends...holding the change to snow a bit 
later for areas mainly east of the Turnpike tonight. Area cross 
sections/BUFKIT soundings and mean thickness forecasts suggest that 
some mixed precipitation is quite possible tonight along the strong 
elevated baroclinic zone...so will add some sleet and even a 
period of freezing rain for south central and southeast Kansas. 


Otherwise...this storm system looks to have the greatest impact 
across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas on Saturday and 
Saturday night...with strong frontogenetical forcing/lift shown 
across this area in the favored snow growth zone aloft. As the low 
continues to deepen and occlude into early Sunday morning...the 
accumulating snow is likely to continue across portions of 
southeast Kansas along a better defined trailing trowal axis. 
Therefore plan to carry the winter headlines into Sunday morning 
there. A rather tight pop gradient/precipitation cut-off is expected to 
the northwest of the sharp middle/upper deformation zone by later 
Saturday...and will diminish or end probability of precipitation across western portions 
of the area by Saturday night. 


Bottom-line...we do not expect much change in the headlines as 
outlined...with the expected upgrade of the watch to a warning... 
with heaviest snow totals east of the Turnpike. Winter Weather 
Advisory for central Kansas looks good with lesser snow totals 
expected. 


Obviously the expected snow will have impact on temperatures 
into early next week...and have generally followed the spirit of 
the previous forecast. Nonetheless...a general moderation in 
temperatures is expected through Tuesday with another chance for 
precipitation by Wednesday/Thursday. 


Darmofal 


Aviation...18z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
while most tafs across the area will start out VFR...conditions 
are going to deteriorate later today as a late-season winter storm 
moves through the Southern Plains. A strong cold front is moving 
through khut at taf issuance time...and will continue to push 
southeastward through the day. A couple hours behind this 
front...winds increase significantly and ceilings fall to MVFR and 
lower. Precipitation will begin as rain...but expect a fairly 
quick transition to snow. Kict and kcnu will see the longest 
duration of snowfall...with several inches of accumulation 
expected. 


Schreck 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 29 32 27 41 / 100 90 50 10 
Hutchinson 27 32 25 43 / 100 70 40 10 
Newton 27 31 26 40 / 100 90 50 10 
Eldorado 29 31 28 38 / 90 100 60 20 
Winfield-kwld 30 32 28 39 / 90 100 60 20 
Russell 25 34 20 46 / 100 40 10 10 
Great Bend 25 34 18 45 / 100 50 10 10 
Salina 27 34 20 45 / 100 50 30 10 
McPherson 26 32 23 43 / 100 60 40 10 
Coffeyville 33 34 30 36 / 70 100 100 40 
Chanute 32 34 30 36 / 70 100 100 40 
Iola 32 33 30 36 / 70 100 90 30 
Parsons-kppf 33 34 30 36 / 70 100 100 40 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Sunday for ksz071-072-095- 
096-099-100. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ksz051-052-067- 
068-082-083-091-092. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 am CDT Sunday for ksz053-069-070- 
093. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ksz032-033- 
047>050. 


Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Sunday for ksz094-098. 


&& 


$$