359 
fxus63 kpah 190838 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
338 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Discussion... 
we will have one more warm clear day today. The short term models 
have continued to slow the progression of the next precipitation maker for 
the region. It appears that much of the daylight hours on Sat will 
just have increasing clouds and a low chance of measureable rainfall 
as a low level jet sets up ahead of an approaching cold 
front/upper trough. A vigorous closed upper low is prognosticated to 
develop over OK by Sat night...with an attendant surface low to its 
NE. The upper low is expected to stay south of the pah forecast area 
but the surface low/trough and warm/occluded front should be in our 
general vicinity on Sunday. There will be plenty of rain. 
Instability with this system is limited. As a result...thunderstorm 
activity should be rather isolated...and severe weather is not expected. 
However...small hail will continue to be possible Sunday with more 
robust updrafts... due to low freezing levels and cold air aloft 
near the upper low. Some rain will probably linger in the east on 
Monday as the upper low heads into the Carolinas. 


Temperatures should rebound nicely during the middle of next week under 
another upper level ridge. Toward next weekend another low 
pressure system is shown to bring more rain to the region. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions today through tonight. Expect occasional high 
cloudiness...and possibly some diurnal cumulus. Winds during the 
daytime hours should be from the south/southwest 5 to 10 kts. 
Some gusts around 15 kts will be possible. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public...db 
aviation...cn