668 
fxus63 kpah 161858 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
157 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Discussion... 
quiet weather pattern to continue for the rest of the week. Tonight 
into Wednesday...upper low still expected to drop southward across 
western Missouri. However...with no low level support and very 
limited overall moisture...will see only very small probability of precipitation Wednesday over southeast 
MO. Main effect of the low will likely be to limit sun and keep 
temperatures down near 50...especially west of the MS river. NE areas like 
southeast Illinois/SW in/northwest Kentucky may see more sun...and perhaps afternoon temperatures in 
the upper 50s to near 60. 


In the wake of this system...Thursday and Friday...an upper level 
ridge pumps up across the Ohio River valley and will allow more in the 
way of warmer afternoon temperatures and sunshine. May see some locations 
flirt with 70 degrees Friday as winds turn more southerly. 


The main challenge in the extended will be timing for the weekend 
cold front passage. There still remains a great deal of uncertainty 
among the models in both the 00z and 12z Tuesday model runs. However as 
stated yesterday did think we would have to slow the onset of this 
system some...starting with the 12z Monday European model (ecmwf) run that arrived 
Monday afternoon. This hypothesis has gained support with the European model (ecmwf) 
coming more into line with the slower GFS deterministic runs. The 
GFS ensemble just as the operational runs show better continuity 
with successive runs. 


Although the exact path of the upper low still remains uncertain... 
think the overall picture is becoming clear that this will be a 
weekend event. Also did continue with chance of thunder. However unless 
we can increase dew points from current trends do not expect severe 
weather at this time. However will monitor as collaboration has yielded the 
thought that higher dew points may advect into the area ahead of 
this system. With the later arrival have of course increased temperatures 
for Friday into Sat time frame and brought dew points into the 40s 
ahead of front. 


&& 


Aviation... 
expect 3 kft to 40 kft ceilings to persist through much of the taf 
period...with light northerly winds. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Meffert/kh