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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
343 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure building over the region will bring fair dry weather 
for the rest of the week and for the weekend. Another cold front 
will likely bring a period of rain showers later Sunday and Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
high pressure surface and aloft over the plains and rockies. Low 
pressur esurface and aloft over the Maritimes. Northwest flow from 
Manitoba Canada into New England with much of the flow aimed toward 
Maine and Nova Scotia. 


Lingering 20-25 knot gustiness late afternoon in eastern mass...but 
with a diminishing pressure gradient we should see winds becoming 
light everywhere tonight. The northwest flow shows mostly clear skies 
with patchy cirrus in central Canada. 


NAM and GFS show a shortwave in the northwest flow approaching New 
England later tonight. Limited moisture...mostly limited to the 
cirrus level as it crosses our area late tonight. 


Min temperatures are a blend of MOS. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/... 
continued dry northwest flow through the period. 


Wednesday...lingering high clouds in the morning as the upper 
shortwave moves past. Otherwise a fine day with light westely winds. 
NAM and GFS bring mixing to about 4000 feet. This seems low 
considering full sun and a west flow...mixing should reach closer to 
850 mb away from the South Coast where the marine layer will buffer 
some of the warming. Temperatures at 850 mb will be around 2c...which would 
support maximum temperatures around 63f...used the metnam guidence with minor 
adjustements. 


Wednesday night...continued dry with light winds. Some increase in 
clouds possible especially northern mass/southern New Hampshire as a weak front 
moves into northern New England. Min temperatures are from a blend of MOS. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
Thursday through Saturday... 
high confidence in dry and pleasant springlike weather with above 
normal temperatures over this period. High pressure building over 
the southeast U.S. Will pump a dry and mild west southwest flow of 
air into the region. High temperatures should range from mainly the 
upper 50s to the middle 60s. Temperatures may end up a bit cooler 
though on Friday...especially near the coast as the NAM/European model (ecmwf) are 
hinting at a weak backdoor cold front. Also...a marine influence 
will result in temperatures cooler at times along the immediate 
coast and especially Cape Cod/Nantucket through the period. 


Sunday and Monday... 
a digging shortwave over the Great Lakes will result in meridional 
flow developing across southern New England. Timing remains 
uncertain...but would expect a period of rain showers ahead of the 
system late Sunday into Monday. There looks to be decent moisture 
return ahead of this system and the front may be a slow mover with a 
strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. Therefore...would 
not be surprised to see a decent period of rain with this system but 
certainly nothing like we experienced this weekend. Also...a strong 
low level jet and marginal instability may be supportive for a bit 
of thunder and gusty winds ahead of the front. Its a day 6 forecast 
though so will not insert thunder into the forecast quite yet...but 
this will need to be watched. Temperatures look to remain above 
normal. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
tonight...VFR. High confidence. Diminishing north-northeast wind this 
evening....mainly cape and islands. 


Wednesday...VFR. High confidence. 


Wednesday night...VFR. High confidence. 


Outlook...Thursday through Sunday... 


High confidence in mainly VFR conditions throughout this period. 
Low to medium confidence in times of patchy late night/early morning 
fog in the typically prone locations. 


&& 


Marine... 
diminishing wind tonight and slowly diminishing seas tonight through 
Wednesday night. Lingering small craft strength wind gusts this 
evening...mainly south and east of Cape Cod. Seas will remain at or 
above 5 feet most of tonight...with 5 foot or higher seas on the 
outer waters through Wednesday night. 


Outlook...Thursday through Sunday... 


Thursday through Saturday... left over Small Craft Advisory for seas across the 
outer-waters should drop below criteria Thursday afternoon/early 
evening. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure over the southeast 
should keep winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
area Flood Warning continue through 945 PM tonight for Rhode Island...eastern 
mass and southern New Hampshire as several of the smaller rivers and 
streams are still rising...and some remain in moderate to major flood 
severity. Numerous river flood warnings continue...with some forecast 
points at moderate and major flood severity. Please see flood 
warnings and statements for more specific information about the 
status of individual rivers. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for anz232-235- 
237. 
Small Craft Advisory until 1 am EDT Wednesday for anz231-233- 
234. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Thursday for anz250-251- 
254>256. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/Frank 
near term...wtb 
short term...wtb 
long term...Frank 
aviation...wtb/Frank 
marine...wtb/Frank 
hydrology...wtb/evt/nmb