669 
fxus61 kcar 171950 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
350 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will slowly move through the area overnight 
then push offshore on Thursday. The front will lift north as a 
warm front Friday and Friday night as a weak low pressure system 
tracks to our north. A strong storm will approach over the 
weekend. The low will lift northwest of the area Sunday night 
as it pulls a strong cold front across the state on Monday. 
&& 


Near term /through Thursday/... 
a weak cold front pushing across the area tonight will bring 
clouds and slight chances for showers. The overcast skies and 
breeze associated with the front will keep temperatures mild 
tonight preventing lows in most places from dropping below 
freezing. The front will ease just south of the area Thursday. 
Skies will become partially clear in the afternoon with a 
gusty northwesterly breeze and moderately cooler conditions. 
&& 


Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/... 
initially...fair weather will prevail Thursday night as a weak shortwave ridge both 
at the surface and aloft traverses west to east across the forecast area. Friday should 
begin partly cloudy across the forecast area...but a weak shortwave moving east from northern 
ont prov can accompanied by low/middle low level warm advcn will bring 
increasing clouds and a chance of rn showers by middle to late after to msly 
northern portions of the forecast area. With limited moisture...qpf...if measurable... 
will be less than 0.05 inches. Any showers should end Friday 
evening...leaving partly to msly cloudy skies across the forecast area for late 
Friday night through Sat. Hi temperatures on Sat should be warmer then Friday...especially 
over east central and interior downeast portions of the forecast area...which should 
receive the greater sunshine potential and 925 mb temperatures by middle Sat 
after of +6 to +8 degree c. 
&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
all models have been pointing to a low pressure system working its 
way into the County Warning Area by late Sunday night into Monday. The are some 
differences in the timing of this system as the GFS and the Gem 
both have this storm moving in early Monday morning and moving out by 
Monday evening...on the other hand the latest European model (ecmwf) is slower with 
the timing. The European model (ecmwf) wants to bring the bulk of the precipitation in 
Monday afternoon into late Monday night or early Tuesday 
morning. High winds could be an issue with this system as well. 
Right now it looks like this should be mainly a rain event. Will 
bring in chance probability of precipitation in Sunday night and increasing them to likely 
for Monday. Tuesday the system moves out and skies will begin to 
clear. Expect cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with partly 
cloudy skies. For temperatures used a blend of gmos and model 
temperatures. Otherwise initialized with gmos and adjusted as needed. 
&& 


Fire weather... 
a gusty breezy and low relative humidities will result in high 
fire dangers early this evening. And elevated fire danger can 
be expected on Thursday as the air remains dry and a gusty breeze 
follows our weak cold front. Conditions may mitigate some on Friday 
and Sat as winds become lighter and after min rh's modify into the 
30s to lower 40s. 


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/... 
VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight through Sat with the 
lowest middle deck and perhaps low VFR across northern taf sites Friday after/evening 
with affects from the weak shortwave passing well to our north. VFR Sat evening 
may transition to MVFR with ocean SC/St late Sat night/Erly Sun morning 
with conditions gradually transitioning downward to IFR Sun night 
into Monday with St/Nova Scotia cloud deck and occasional rainfall. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: a few wind gusts may approach 25 knots this evening ahead 
of the cold front. Otherwise...winds and seas should remain below 
Small Craft Advisory tonight and Thursday. 


Short term: no hdlns anticipated Thursday night through Sat at this time. Used a 2:1 
blend of opnl gfs40/nam12 winds and kept close or just above ww3 
forecast WV heights. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for mez011- 
015>017-029>032. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...Bloomer 
short term...vjn 
long term...hill 
aviation...Bloomer 
marine...Bloomer/vjn