384 
fxus61 kcar 202013 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
413 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build across the region tonight...then move 
east Sunday. Low pressure will track south of the region later 
Monday through Tuesday. 
&& 


Near term /through Sunday/... 
a cold front will exit the downeast coast this evening...then move 
across the Gulf of Maine overnight while high pressure builds 
across the region. A band of clouds will occur in the vicinity of 
the front. The front will slow while moving across the Gulf of 
Maine...which could allow the area of clouds to linger across 
downeast areas tonight. Across northern areas...clouds will move 
south early tonight...with partly cloudy skies overnight. An 
isolated rain or snow shower could across northern/central areas 
this evening. High pressure will move east Sunday...with moisture 
expanding back north across the region. Skies will remain mostly 
cloudy downeast Sunday...with increasing clouds across northern 
areas during the afternoon. The combination of increasing moisture 
and upper level jet energy approaching from the southwest could 
bring isolated showers to central/downeast areas late Sunday 
afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle to 
upper teens north...to the lower 30s downeast. High temperatures 
Sunday will range from the upper 30s to around 40 north...to the 
middle 40s downeast. 
&& 


Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday/... 
the start of the short term finds the models in good agreement. 
A high pressure ridging into the County Warning Area from a center in the North 
Atlantic. A low pressure system over central Tennessee with a weak warm 
front extending NE into western ME. A secondary low tracking across Hudson 
Bay. By 12z the weak warm fnt moves to the coast as a Canadian 
high mvs into western ME. The secondary low mvs to eastern Quebec. The primary 
low mvs NE into southern Ohio. The low has a mature frontal system 
wrapped around it. By 00z Tuesday the low mvs east into western PA. At this 
point the models begin to show some minor differences. The GFS 
shows a new low along the coast of Delaware-Maryland-Virginia with a cold front 
extending S into Cuba. The European model (ecmwf) places the new low over central Virginia. 
The Gem has the new low well east of the coast. With the cold 
front extending S through Bermuda into eastern Cuba. The GFS has a warm 
fnt extending east along the downeast coast. The Gem has it S of Nova 
Scotia. The European model (ecmwf) has no discernible warm fnt. By 12z Tuesday the 
Gem/GFS/ECMWF deepen the new low and push the system into the New 
England. The GFS/Gem brings the system into southern ME. The European model (ecmwf) keeps 
the system over the southern Gulf of Maine. By the end of period the 
GFS/Gem mv the low to Cape Cod with the front system into central ME. 
The European model (ecmwf) mvs the low to Long Island...with the front into southern ME. 
The European model (ecmwf) by 06z Wednesday look similar to the GFS/Gem at 00z Wednesday. 


Loaded match guidance for maximum/min temperatures. Gem for deep. Blended winds 
NAM/GFS...plus 25 percent gust for marine...15 percent over land. 
Blended pop/sky/qpf GFS/nam12/MOS. 
&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
loaded the gmos for the long term. Models continuing to hint at a 
return of more winter like weather later by midweek. Model 
ensemble indicates low pressure moving off of Cape Cod Tuesday 
evening tracking just south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Critical 
thickness indicates mainly snow across northern sections with a 
mix of rain and snow over central to interior downeast sections 
and then mainly rain along the coast Tuesday night into early 
Tuesday. Low exits the region later Wednesday into Thursday but 
strong cold front will cross the state early Friday with winter 
types temperatures for the beginning of the weekend. 
&& 


Aviation /18z Saturday through Thursday/... 
near term: localized MVFR conditions could briefly occur across 
central/northern areas this evening. Otherwise...generally VFR 
conditions are expected across the region tonight through most of 
Sunday. MVFR conditions could begin to develop late Sunday across 
downeast areas. 


Short term: VFR conditions for car...pqi...hul through period. 
Bgr...bhb will fall to MVFR to IFR in precipitation as the low exits 
the coast into the North Atlantic aftr 12z Tuesday. MVFR/IFR due to 
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday improving to VFR conditions 
during later on Wednesday from south to north. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory 
levels tonight through Sunday. 


Short term: a Gale Warning may be required 12z Tuesday through 00z Wednesday as the 
low mvs through southern Gulf of Maine. Loaded nawave 4 for seas. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...Norcross 
short term...Norton 
long term...Foster 
aviation...Norcross 
marine...Norcross/Norton