368 
fxus63 kmqt 220842 
afdmqt 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Marquette Michigan 
442 am EDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Discussion... 
upper air pattern consists of a closed 500 mb low over northern Alabama 
and a deep trough across the southeast with ridging in the western 
Atlantic and across the southern rockies into the northern plains 
and troughing in the Pacific northwest with upper level flow nearly zonal 
across the northern U.S. 


Energy coming out of the trough in the Pacific northwest will affect the 
upper Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday...then some colder air arrives for 
Thursday. 


Dry weather looks to continue through most of the period with a 
cooling trend for this forecast. Warmest day will be today and then 
colder temperatures each day with the coldest temperatures for Thursday 
and Friday as much colder air arrives then. In the meantime...dry 
weather will continue through Tuesday morning. Not real impressed with 
moisture with both cold fronts going through. The first one...does 
not get cold enough for lake effect as 850 mb temperatures fall to 
about -6c to -8c or so and Lake Superior is about 2c or so. This is 
not enough for lake effect. The second cold front on Wednesday night and 
Thursday is cold enough though as European model (ecmwf) and GFS show 850 mb temperatures 
dropping to -12c to -16c or so. However...this is a glancing blow 
and with strong sun angle and heating...lake effect processes become 
disrupted a lot during the day and become better at night this time 
of year. For this reason...only went chance or slight chance probability of precipitation. 
Overall...did not change weather...probability of precipitation or temperatures very much at 
all. 
&& 


Aviation /for the 06z tafs/... 


Dry airmass through the low and middle levels will result in VFR 
conditions continuing through the forecast period at kcmx/ksaw. 
&& 


Marine /for the 4 am Lake Superior forecast/... 


Winds will generally remain below 20 knots into Tuesday as they 
become southeasterly on the back side of high pressure moving into 
Quebec. As the elongated surface low passes north of Lake Superior 
on Tuesday with northwesterly winds up to 30 knots will occur late 
Tuesday and Tuesday evening with high pressure building into the 
area. Winds will diminish to less than 20 knots on Wednesday before 
another potential round or northwesterly winds up to 30 knots on 
Thursday especially over north Central Lake Superior. 
&& 


MQT watches/warnings/advisories... 
Upper Michigan... 
none. 
Lake Superior... 
none. 
Lake Michigan... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 




Discussion...07 
aviation...rolfson 
marine...dlg