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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
342 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Short term... 
the main forecast challenge is temperatures. When looking at the 
latest surface analysis...a ridge of high pressure extends through east 
South Dakota into east Minnesota...with a trough extending through central ND. When 
comparing the models...the models are in pretty good agreement into 
the weekend....so ended up leaning toward the NAM for probability of precipitation and the 
adjmav for temperatures. 


The surface ridge continues shifting east tonight and the trough passes 
by Thursday morning as well...turning the winds to a more west direction... 
which will assist in keeping temperatures up overnight. With cold air 
holding back a bit...expect to see another warm day on Thursday...with 
highs in the 40s. 


Colder air starts to push down into the North Plains for Thursday night and 
Friday...as the winds turn northwest. Could see some flurries or light snow 
as the cold air moves back in. However...expecting only a dusting at 
best at this time. The cold air advection continues through Friday night into Sat... 
with low temperatures dropping into the 10 to 20 degree range by Sat 
morning. 


Long term /Sat night through Fri/... 
long range models in general agreement with a Canadian wave moving 
across the County warning forecast area Sat night into sun. Primary difference with the 
models is the associated fronts impact on temperatures...with the European model (ecmwf) 
colder than the GFS...and HPC is leaning toward the cooler 
solution. 


In general...we will see a shift toward cooler temperatures as a couple of 
cold fronts move through from Sat evening through Wednesday. Probability of precipitation have 
been added to the forecast in the NE for Sat evening. However...the 
air mass looks rather dry...more likely a flurry scenario. Monday looks 
dry...then another wave moves through Tuesday into Wednesday. Current HPC 
solution looks a little fast when compared to the European model (ecmwf)...but do have 
probability of precipitation in during the day on Tuesday...with Tuesday night being the best chance 
for any precipitation. Looking more like snow versus rain with the cooler 
temperatures the European model (ecmwf) is showing...and have adjusted grids accordingly. 
Have kept mention of rain for afternoon hours as temperatures rise into the 
upper 30s. 


&& 


Aviation... 
currently VFR conditions for all area terminals as the low clouds 
and fog from this morning have lifted and dissipated or pushed off 
to the east. Will keep VFR going through the rest of today with 
gusty SW winds...up to 20 kts. Winds will gradually diminish and 
shift to the west this evening with skies remaining VFR from kgfk 
and kfar west. However east...a shallow layer of moisture will be advected 
in from the north and bring the potential for broken-overcast IFR ceilings around 
ktvf and kbji through the early morning period of Thursday. Skies are 
expected to clear rapidly Thursday morning...with VFR conditions by 16z. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
another day of mild temperatures coming up on Thursday before the 
inevitable chill sets in to end the week. So...overland flooding 
will still be a concern for parts of east ND as improvement occurs 
over wc Minnesota . With the exception of those sites near the main Stem 
Red River...many Minnesota forecast points have already crested and are 
falling. With little snow pack remaining and a dry forecast the 
next several days across northwest Minnesota...do not expect additional rises 
at these sites at this time. Red Lake River Crest wave is projected 
to swing through greater Grand Forks early Thursday morning...a good 
time for it to come through with the maximum stage at egfm5 still 
several days away. 


All River Point locations across east ND and along the Red River are 
rising and forecast to reach moderate and/or major flood stage. 
The exception on the Red River is at Wahpeton where the river has 
been slowly falling and this trend is expected to continue over the 
next several days. The other exceptions are Valley City and Grafton 
which are forecast to reach minor and on the Pembina river... 
Walhalla and Neche...which do not yet have forecasts. 


River flood warnings have been issued for the Pembina and Drayton 
points on the red...this completes the circuit of all points in 
flood along the Red River of the North. River ice and ice jams 
continue to be a problem along the north stretches of the Red River 
and its tributaries. Stay tuned for future forecast updates as ice 
affects can result in rapid fluctuations in river levels. 


Stage measuring equipment is functioning well at this time. Manual 
readings are being relayed from Hallock to verify dcp readings since 
there is a chance this point could become ice affected in the near 
future. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ndz006>008-014>016-024- 
026>030-038-049-052-054. 


Areal Flood Warning for Richland and Cass counties. 


Minnesota...areal Flood Warning for Wilkin...Clay and Norman counties. 


&& 


$$ 
Ng/pjs/dlh/wjb