807 
fxus63 kdlh 220145 aab 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
845 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion... 
no changes are envisioned to the afternoon zones. Very low dew 
points will allow temperatures to fall several degrees below 
freezing tonight...with dry Pacific air allowing them to warm even 
more Monday. An inverted trough may bring light rain or showers to 
the area Tuesday...these will not amount to much. Winds will back 
eventually to the southeast or east Monday and become light as the 
approaching inverted trough weakens the pressure gradient Monday 
night. A cold front will bring more seasonably cool temperatures 
on Thursday...this is apt to bring little or no precipitaiton. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 650 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Aviation.../00z taf issuance/ 
VFR skies expected through taf period. Only some high cirrus expected to 
stream through. Winds will generally be a S to southeast component and 
fairly light...though could gust at times over 12kt during the peak 
heating time Monday afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Discussion...latest regional surface analysis shows a cold front 
poised just north of the Canadian border...with areas of high 
pressure to the north and south of the front. The front will 
become stationary and meander along the international border tonight. A low 
pressure system over the northern plains will then track eastward along the 
front across the upper Midwest Monday night and Tuesday. Forcing 
associated with the disturbance is expected to be fairly weak and 
moisture limited. Therefore we will stay with low probability of precipitation across our 
forecast area...starting late Monday night going through Tuesday 
evening. Because 850mb and surface temperatures will be near or just 
below freezing Monday night and Tuesday morning...we will 
continue to mention rain and snow in the forecast. By afternoon 
however...any precipitation should change over to all rain as surface temperatures 
rise into the 40s and lower 50s. The low will quickly depart to 
the east while a weak ridge of high pressure from Canada moves 
over the region...resulting in drier conditions for late Tuesday 
night and Wednesday. 


Extended...Wednesday night through Sunday. 
Upper trough swinging around eastern cn low expected to clip northestern zones of our 
County Warning Area Wednesday night/Thursday as surface system drags cfnt southward across western Great Lakes 
region. Moisture lacking...so kept probability of precipitation in slight chance category. Brief period 
of upper level ridging Thursday night...then southerly flow returns for Friday/Sat on 
back side of surface high with warm air advection/isent lift...but still little moisture. 
Confidence for Friday/Sat forecast not very high at this time. Large model diffs on 
strength and position of upper level shortwave and to whether or not it 
phases well with southern branch shortwave. This will have a large bearing on 
the location and intensity of the surface system and consequently the 
weather over our County Warning Area. For now stayed with slight probability of precipitation and generally 
split the diff between the wetter more intense GFS and drier less 
intense European model (ecmwf). Precipitation type will probably be snow except during the afternoon 
when blyr temperatures should be warm enough for rain or rain/snow mix. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 29 52 32 43 / 0 10 10 20 
inl 24 52 28 42 / 0 10 20 30 
brd 28 53 34 46 / 0 10 10 20 
hyr 26 58 34 52 / 0 10 10 20 
asx 26 58 34 50 / 0 10 10 20 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Eom/lonka