369 
fxus62 kmhx 162004 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
404 PM EDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build in from west through Wednesday. Weak low 
pressure will develop off the southeast coast late Wednesday 
through Thursday then move well offshore on Friday. High pressure 
will build back over the area Friday and Saturday ahead of the 
next frontal system to affect the area late in the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
low pressure continue to eject eastward well offshore but moisture 
convergence associated with 850 mb troughing below a strong middle level 
inversion continuing to bring abundant clouds across the region 
this afternoon. Troughing continues to slide southward overnight with 
warming around h9 weakening the inversion allowing for clouds to 
dissipate through overnight allowing for descent radiational 
cooling late. Min temperatures expected in the M/u30s away from the coast 
to l40s coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... 
a baggy middle level trough remains across the eastern half of the Continental U.S. 
Through Thursday night with a couple shortwaves moving through flow 
aloft. The first shortwave prognosticated to move from the gom to off the 
southeast coast Wednesday/Wednesday night. Models continue to develop surface low pressure 
off the southeast coast but keep it well offshore with minimal effects 
across the County Warning Area. Will keep slight chance probability of precipitation only in far eastern 
coastal sections S from Hatteras south in case models start to 
trend closer to the coast but otherwise only expecting increased 
cloud cover across the region. The second shortwave moves across S 
Florida Thursday night with ridging beginning to build in from the west Friday. A 
nice warming trend expected through the short term with near 
normal temperatures in the m60s inland to m50s obx Wednesday then around 70 
inland Thursday/Friday except around 60 obx. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
high pressure surface and aloft will dominate the weather across the 
region Friday night through Sat night bringing continued above normal 
temperatures in the l/m70s except l60s obx. A broad upper trough pushing 
across the central Continental U.S. Sat will push toward the East Coast sun. Surface 
high pressure and southerly flow will continue to bring warm temperatures and 
increasing moisture across the region sun in advance of a cold 
front. Best chances for precipitation will be Sun afternoon and experimental into Sun 
night with models in descent agreement with frontal passage across the 
region late Sun night. High pressure builds in from the west early next 
week with temperatures returning to near or slightly below average. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
as of 1030 am Tuesday...widespread stratocumulus deck continues to 
blanket eastern NC. Bases have lowered to MVFR and this will 
continue until early evening when drier aloft finally mixes down 
to surface clearing the skies and leading to VFR conditions. A 
light north to northeast flow around stubborn low pressure off the 
coast will continue into Thursday night. By Friday however the 
flow will begin to veer to east...then become south on Saturday as 
a front to the west makes its way east. VFR expected through the 
period. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 1030 am Tuesday...winds have increased slightly past 6 hours 
most likely due to diurnal mixing with speeds 20 to 25 knots from 
lookout north. Expect winds to continue in this range through 
early evening then begin to slowly subside. 7-9 feet seas will 
subside to 6 to 8 feet by evening north of lookout but will remain 
at or above Small Craft Advisory levels int middle week due to lingering swell from sluggish 
storm off the coast. 


Previous discussion...00z models in very good agreement. Low 
pressure over the middle- Atlantic offshore waters will gradually 
move east over the next several days. Surge in winds/seas 
presently making its way down the coast in association with 
tightening pressure gradient. Time sections show well-defined middle- 
level shortwave rotating around the low but surface reflection 
hard to find. The surge will be short- lived though as the 
shortwave moves out this morning and overall pressure pattern will 
be loosening over the next few days as the low moves east. Need to 
make a few changes to the small craft advisories now in effect 
based on latest data. Continue Small Craft Advisory through this evening for the 
sounds though it will be mainly in gusts on the Albemarle and will 
word it that way. Will extend the advisory for Ocracoke to Cape 
Lookout through late Thursday night as seas will take a while to 
subside in prolonged east to northeast swell. Models develop a 
weak low over the southeast offshore waters on Thursday which 
weakens into a weak surface trough on Friday. The lows only effect 
will be to prolong the northeast flow across the waters. By this 
weekend high pressure will be in place over the offshore waters 
with a front out to the west making its way east. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for amz130- 
135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EDT Friday for amz152-154-156. 
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Friday for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sk 
near term...sk 
short term...sk 
long term...sk 
aviation...jme/hsa 
marine...jme/hsa