505 
fxus62 kmhx 191552 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
1152 am EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the North Carolina coast will push east this 
morning. High pressure will build over the area from the west this 
afternoon and tonight...then move offshore Saturday and Sunday. A 
cold front will approach from the west late Sunday and move across 
the area Monday. High pressure will build back into the region for 
the middle of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 840 am Friday...upper low continues to spin offshore well 
east of the Carolinas. Only a few clouds are lingering along the 
immediate South Coast...but generally clear skies elsewhere. Have 
updated latest public forecast to go to sunny skies. Should be 
pleasant with afternoon maximum temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/... 
high pressure moving across S of area will lead to fair and dry weekend 
with above normal day-time temperatures. Good timing with Vernal equinox 
occurring at 132 PM EDT on Saturday. Based on model consensus of 
slower timing with next system...dropped probability of precipitation Sun afternoon. Minor 
adjustments to temperatures based on MOS blend. Some upper 30s for lows 
tonight in normally colder areas...otherwise temperatures continuing to moderate 
over weekend. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
as of 1155 am Friday...still anticipate high rain chances Sunday 
night into early Monday as complex low pressure moves across the 
Ohio Valley and off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and drags a cold front across 
the region by Monday afternoon. Additional small probability of precipitation will be 
likely on Tuesday as an upper low moves east from the Tennessee 
Valley to off the Carolina coast by Tuesday afternoon. Remainder 
of extended period from Wednesday on will be characterized by 
building 500 mb heights with dry weather and temperatures close to seasonal 
normals. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Friday through Tuesday/... 
as of 225 am Friday...VFR conditions at all 4 area terminals. High 
overcast will thin out and skies will become clear by middle-morning 
as low pressure off the coast moves away and high pressure over 
the Gulf states moves east. A light northwest surface wind today 
will drop to calm this evening with high pressure covering much of 
the southeast. A light south to southwest flow will develop on 
Saturday and continue Saturday night as the axis of high pressure 
moves off the southeast coast. Clouds will spread in from the 
south and southwest on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front. 
South winds will increase as well with 10-15 knots expected. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then overspread the 
region Sunday night and continue through Monday along with the 
associated low clouds/cigs. The front will move off the coast by 
Monday evening bringing an end to the rain. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 945 am Friday...surface low associated with upper level vortex 
is moving further offshore this morning as weak high pressure builds 
in from the north and west. Gradient has diminished and expect 
generally north/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Still 
lingering swell over the middle legs with Diamond buoy reporting 6 
feet/11 seconds...so will continue Small Craft Advisory from Oregon Inlet to 
Ocracoke through this evening. 


Previous discussion... 
as of 225 am Friday...00z models in good agreement. The trend will be 
for an improvement in boating conditions today with nice 
conditions for this weekend...then it deteriorates after that. Low 
pressure over the offshore waters east of Cape Hatteras will 
continue moving away today with high pressure over the Gulf states 
building east. Small craft seas are marginal at Diamond buoy and 
plan on continuing the advisory through this evening. Will drop 
all other coastal waters. Light winds and seas expected tonight 
through Saturday night. The flow will become southerly tonight 
into Saturday as the axis of the surface ridge moves off the 
southeast coast. The flow will increase beginning Sunday as a cold 
front approaches from the west. Small craft conditions will return 
Sunday night as the gradient tightens. The front will cross the 
coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening with the flow becoming 
west behind the front. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz152- 
154. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...jbm 
near term...ctc 
short term...jbm 
long term...ctc 
aviation...rf/hsa 
marine...ctc/hsa