465 
fxus62 kmhx 220747 
afdmhx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
347 am EDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross the area today. An upper level low 
pressure center will cross the region tonight. High pressure will 
build in from the west later Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak cold 
front will drop southeast through the area Wednesday night and 
stall to the south Thursday as high pressure builds in from the 
northwest. Low pressure will cross the area Friday and move 
offshore Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 230 am Monday...band of convection expected to cross this 
morning and early afternoon along and ahead of cold front in area of 
strong forcing associated with approaching middle/upper low. Current 
regional radar loop showing rain showers developing to the S/SW and these 
will lift north-northeast and impact region next several hours. Wind fields 
aloft impressive and favorable for organized convection however 
instability is limited with surface dewpoints expected to reach only upper 50s 
to lower 60s. This limited instability will lower the chances for severe 
weather...however some strong wind gusts will be possible in any 
convection given winds just above the surface. Kept previous forecast of 
likely probability of precipitation this morning inland with likely probability of precipitation shifting toward 
obx around noon or so. Precipitation shld cutoff quickly from SW to NE as 
dry slot moves in from middle morning on. Given warm start and 
potential for some sunshine later expect highs around 70 inland to 
middle 60s beaches with flow off cold ocean. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/... 
as of 230 am Monday...no precipitation expected this evening as dry slot 
in wake of front crosses. Later tonight and first part of Tuesday 
expect slight chance of rain showers as upper low moves across. With westerly 
low level flow not expecting much with best chances northern tier. As upper 
low moves east expect clouds to diminish later Tuesday with mclr skies 
likely Tuesday night. Lows tonight mainly 40 to 45. Cooler Tuesday with 
highs mostly 60 to 65. Looks like will have enough mixing Tuesday 
night to keep lows mainly in the low to middle 40s. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
as of 230 PM Sunday...high pressure will build in for Wednesday with 
slight bump in temps/thicknesses. A weak backdoor cold front will 
sink S Wednesday nt...which could lead to more clouds and slight cooling 
for into Thursday. Another cold front will push S by Friday before 
stalling over the region. Meanwhile...another yet weaker upper level 
low will move out of the S plains along the front...bringing 
another chance of rain Friday into Sat. High pressure then builds behind the 
low Sat nt into sun. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/... 
as of 245am Monday...deteriorating flying conditions on tap now through 
early morning as frontal boundary tied to a broad surface low currently 
over Kentucky approaches and moves through the region. Expecting 
MVFR ceilings to gradually develops as Atlantic moisture continues to increase 
with southeast winds through early morning. Showers also expected to 
increase in coverage over the area with best chances for precipitation between 
10-16z as surface boundary moves through. Strong gusty winds expected to 
accompany the showers with impressive low level jet moving through 
the region...and have handled this with a tempo group for now. Some 
potential for thunderstorms through morning as well with this system though 
instability looks marginal and upstream lightning has been rather 
isolated so kept out of tafs for now...but did include a cumulonimbus group 
and will amend as needed. Isolated IFR will be possible in any heavier 
showers/thunderstorms that move through. Low level wind shear criteria expected to be met 
outside of the showers (when winds will not be mixing to surface as 
well) through early morning so continued previous taf thinking on 
that with southeast/S jet around 35-45kt just above the surface. Deep moisture 
expected to push offshore this afternoon with ceilings improving to VFR. 
Winds will shift SW and continue to gust around 20kt this afternoon. 


There will be a slight chance of showers and low probability for 
MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Tuesday as upper low moves through the 
region. Mainly VFR Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with dry air and zonal flow 
aloft impacting the region. A backdoor cold front is expected to 
move through Wednesday night but only looks to create a wind shift to 
north at this point. Next chance for precipitation and sub VFR conds 
expected Friday as next frontal system impacts the region. 


&& 


Marine... 
as of 345am Monday...Small Craft Advisory range southeast/S winds expected 
now through about 18z all but Albemarle Sound...then shift SW and 
diminish a bit from SW to NE as front moves through. Models in 
good agreement with SW becoming west flow gradually increasing to 
advisory levels again most waters tonight and especially Tuesday as low pressure 
strengthens north of the area. This continues through Tuesday night then 
diminishes into Wednesday as low pressure lifts well NE of area and high 
pressure ridges on from the south. Most of the 00z models are then in 
fairly good agreement showing a weak backdoor cold front moving 
through Wednesday night with a brief surge of 15-20kt northerly winds into Thursday 
morning. The exception is the European model (ecmwf) which remains consistent with 
stalling the boundary over our northern/central waters early Thursday. 
Considering this is an outlier and climatology would suggest the 
front will move through...have showed the winds shifting north 
into early Thursday. Regardless expected the Post frontal high to be 
rather progressive so return flow should redevelop by Thursday evening. 
Another front expected to bring increasing north/NE winds on Friday...but 
made no changes to winds this time frame just yet. 


Short period southeast/S wave system picking up as expected and continue to 
show an area of 10-12 feet seas shifting north through the southern and 
central waters through early afternoon...mainly beyond 10nm. Northern waters 
will be a couple feet smaller with less exposure to this fetch. Seas 
come down a few feet later today into tonight but expected to remain 
in the advisory range especially for central/south waters through Tuesday night 
as SW/west flow increases again. Seas gradually come down at or below 4ft by 
Wednesday afternoon. Short period north wave energy picks up to 3-5ft on Thursday behind 
back door front for northern waters...smaller south. Seas may increase 
again on Friday with next frontal system but still uncertainty in the 
details at this point. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz135. 
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154- 
156-158. 
Small Craft Advisory from 7 am this morning to 5 am EDT 
Wednesday for amz150. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...rf 
near term...rf 
short term...rf 
long term...sj 
aviation...mw 
marine...mw 

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