209 
fxus63 koax 211523 
afdoax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1023 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion... 
updated the forecast for minor changes to temperatures based on snow 
cover and possible poor mixing today. Overall...knocked down temperatures 
a degree or two...and increased dewpoints for this morning which 
were about 5 degrees too low. Otherwise...sunny skies and light 
winds will be make for an quite beautiful first full day of Spring. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Synopsis...00z upper air analysis indicated closed low over the Southern Plains 
associated wtih a 160 M 500 mb height fall at kfwd. Upstream...height 
rises were noted over the central and northern rockies with upper 
level ridge axis over the Great Basin. 08z surface analysis indicated ridge 
axis from northwest Kansas into northwest Iowa. Low pressure was located over central Arkansas. 


Forecast...fairly quiet weather is expected over the next 72 hours. 
Main forecast issue is generally temperatures. Upper level low over the 
Southern Plains will shift eastward today alng with middle and high level clouds. 
Thus plenty of sun is expected today. Surface ridge axis over NE Nebraska 
this morning will shift southward today and be located over southeast Nebraska/SW Iowa 
tonight. This will limit mixing today over the central and southern County Warning Area. 
Plus there remains some snow cover over the southern County Warning Area. Due to the 
limited mixing and remaining snow cover have lowered going highs over 
the southern 2/3 of the forecast area for today. Clear skies...melting snow and 
light winds may lead to some light fog over the southern County Warning Area 
tonight...but have not include at this time. Otherwise...with low dew 
points remaining in place...another cold night is in store for the 
County Warning Area and went with the cooler met numbers. Return flow gets going a 
little better on Monday as surface ridge shifts southward and low level flow 
becomes a little SW ahead of the next cold front for Tuesday. NAM seems to 
cool through this period and will follow the ec/GFS for highs/lows through 
the period and this agreed well with going forecast. Have sped up 
the timing of the fnt for Tuesday and this led to cooling highs a 
little on Tuesday...but decent mixing shld allow for near normal 
highs. As shortwave trough is still prognosticated to move into the plains for 
Wednesday and Wednesday night...possibly closing off over the Southern Plains. Still 
looks like the majority of the precipitation with this system will go S 
of the forecast area...but maintained a schc pop in the far S during this 
period as some moisture may make it into southeast Nebraska. System shld 
quickly move off on Thursday. No changes were made to the forecast 
past Thursday. 


Boustead/haselhorst 


Aviation... 


Taf sites kofk/koma/klnk 


06z tafs 


VFR conditions at all taf sites through the period. 


Meyer 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Dewald