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fxus63 kgld 212318 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
518 PM MDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion... 
325 PM MDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Forecast challenge is the amount and phase of precipitation 
associated with the storm system that will move through the 
central and Southern Plains middle week. 


A ridge of high pressure aloft and westerly near surface flow will 
keep conditions dry and mild across the tri-state region through 
Monday night ahead of the next cold front that moves through the 
region Tuesday morning. 


Models have been in reasonably good agreement through the middle 
of the week with the timing and location of the front and the 
upper trough that follows it across The Rockies. There is some 
lack of certainty on how the low off Baja California will phase into the 
ridge moving through the Pacific northwest as it moves across the 
western U.S. This could affect how far the south the upper trough 
reaches along with the eventual movement east of The Rockies 
during the latter half of next week. Have concentrated on the 
period through Wednesday as that portion of the forecast has been 
pretty consistent with several short wave troughs rotating through 
the main upper trough and across the Central High plains region. 


With the front expected to reach the Southern Plains before the 
stronger short waves rotate around the upper trough...expect total 
moisture amounts to be somewhat limited although there will be 
plenty of lift ahead of the main upper trough. Have therefore 
generally undercut precipitation amounts from what models are 
indicating. Also...while temperatures are cooler...they struggle 
to drop below freezing...so total snowfall amounts will be less 
also. With daytime highs still reaching into the 40s...any snow 
that does fall will not remain on the ground for long. Do expect 
gusty north winds behind the front on Tuesday...but with snow not 
expected until Tuesday night...any possibility of blowing snow 
will also be lessened. No highlights are planned at this time. 
Expect a mix of precipitation to continue through early Thursday 
morning with warmer temperatures to move in from the west Thursday 
through Saturday as another ridge aloft moves over the central 
U.S. 


Lockhart 
&& 


Aviation... 
518 PM MDT sun Mar 21 2010 


For the 00z tafs...VFR conditions are expected through the period. 


Buller 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$