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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
627 am CDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Aviation...12z taf. VFR conditions will prevail...but changes will 
start to move into the picture late in the forecast. A veil of 
cirrus level ceilings is expected through the day as southwest winds 
sneak up above 15kts with a tighter surface gradient. The pressure 
gradient will relax early this evening as the trough axis along a 
cold front approaches. Look for some middle clouds to start to move 
into the area during the final six hours of the forecast with as 
winds turn to the northwest behind the cold front. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CDT Monday Mar 22 2010/ 


Discussion...00z upper air observations and recent satellite 
data continue a low pressure system making its way east across 
the Gulf Coast area...while the plains and eastern rockies remain 
under the influence of ridging with another trough along the West 
Coast. At the surface...the region sits between high pressure 
extending from central Texas up into the western Great Lakes and an 
area of low pressure currently over the northern High 
Plains...which is associated with the next system to impact the 
area. This has brought south/southwesterly flow to the County Warning Area...and 
some cirrus shifting into the area bringing partly cloudy skies. 


No big changes made to the forecast for today...with models 
remaining in good agreement with the pattern across the area. Upper 
level ridge axis currently draped through the area will push off to 
the east though the daytime hours...as the next trough moves out 
of the Pacific northwest...with zonal flow eventually setting up over the 
region by this evening. Will see a tightening surface pressure 
gradient later this morning and afternoon...as the low pressure 
system over the northern plains pushes to the southeast...with a 
trough moving into nwern portions of the County Warning Area. Expecting winds to 
increase to near 15 miles per hour...with some gusts near 20 possible this 
afternoon. Today will be the warmest day of the forecast 
period...with warmer air aloft...slightly better mixing 
potential...and a southwest component to the winds for portions of 
the area. Made only minor adjustments to highs...and still 
expecting near 60 in the east...to middle/upper 60s in the west. Some 
upper level cirrus expected to move through the area...but at this 
point its looking like it will be pushing through this 
morning/midday...leaving plenty of time to warm up. 


Dry conditions expected to continue on into tonight and through the 
morning hours on Tuesday...but precipitation chances still in the 
forecast through the middle part of the week. Hasnt been any 
significant changes in the latest model runs with the evolution of 
this system...and remain in pretty good agreement. This system is 
an upper level trough which pushes out of the Pacific northwest through the 
central rockies...eventually developing into a closed circulation 
before getting out onto the plains. Lift increases out ahead of 
this system through the day on Tuesday and continues into 
Wednesday...but expecting this to only really impact the western 
and then southern third of the County Warning Area. This low is then expected to 
cross the Southern Plains...keeping the brunt of the action across 
KS/OK/TX. Forecast had a good handle on things...and only minor 
adjustments were made. Looks to primarily be a liquid event...but 
cant rule out some snow mixing in during the overnight hours. Is some 
slight disagreement between models with the end of the 
precipitation...but forecast remains trended toward the European model (ecmwf) 
which brings things to an end Wednesday night. Also accompanying 
this system is a surface cold front...which is expected to push 
through the County Warning Area by 12z Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday a little 
tricky...as the cooler air lags behind the front...thinking that 
northern areas will struggle to hit 50...with the south getting up 
into the middle/upper 50s before that cooler air moves through. For 
Wednesday...plenty of cloud cover and precipitation in the area 
will keep southern area highs in the middle 40s where the north will 
top out near 50. 


Dry conditions...and gradual warming...return for Thursday and 
Friday...before yet another chance for precipitation comes for the 
weekend. Highs by Friday expected to reach back into the middle 
50s...will a slightly cooler weekend. Made no changes with the 
weekend system...which has a more northward track than the past few 
systems...meaning more of an impact for the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$