148 
fxus64 kepz 181922 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
122 PM MDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Synopsis... 
an approaching low pressure system will move across the southern 
Rocky Mountains and cause warm but windy conditions on Friday. A 
strong cold front will then move southward through the area 
Friday night bringing much cooler weather for the weekend along 
with a chance of snow over the higher mountains. High pressure and 
westerly winds will result in warmer and mostly dry weather Monday 
and Tuesday before another storm brings a chance of rain and 
mountain snows along with cooler temperatures on Wednesday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models showing respectable consistency for evolving weather 
pattern into early next week with somewhat active scenario 
continuing. Upper trough is continuing to amplify/dig over the 
western U.S. This afternoon as 110 knots jet streak extends into 
system's western quadrant. Trough will advance southeastward into 
Arizona on Friday while surface Lee cyclone develops over 
southeast New Mexico. Thus westerly winds will increase with 
inflow of warm dry air into the County Warning Area into tomorrow afternoon. The 
bad news...at least for warm weather lovers...is as the trough 
advances across New Mexico and western Texas Friday evening a 
strong cold front will plunge southward causing snows over the 
higher mountains along with temperatures around 15 degrees cooler 
on Saturday. Landward trajectories will limit moisture content but 
strong dynamic forcing/DPVA plus upslope flow may be sufficient 
for a few inches of snow over portions of the sacs. 


Deep high pressure combined with northerly flow will transport 
colder dry air into the County Warning Area Saturday and Sunday. By Monday winds 
become more westerly as two troughs approach from the west in 
split flow. Southerly upper low will move slowly into northern 
Baja California Monday and Tuesday while another system amplifies over the 
northern rockies within the northerly polar jet. Initially this 
pattern will generate westerly winds with transport of warmer 
mostly dry air. However the troughs phase Tuesday night and 
Wednesday allowing for another cold front to advance through the 
County Warning Area by Wednesday. This complex situation will bring another round 
of cooler temperatures along with mountain snows and lowland rains 
later periods. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 19/00z-20/00z... 
VFR conds expeceted through the forecast period. Surface winds will increase 
and middle/hi level clouds will also increase after 18z ahead of an upper 
air trough and associated backdoor surface cold front which will 
enter the state of nmex from the north. 00z-18z sky clear-sct250 with surface 
winds 240/11kt. None/light turbulence ov/near mountains after 18z: sct120 
scattered-bkn200-250 with surface winds increasing 250/22g35kt. Occasional MDT turbulence 
over near mountains 


&& 


Fire weather... 
an upper ridge of high pressure over the Borderland today will 
continue to provide mostly clear skies and warm temperatures. A 
storm system from the Pacific northwest will drop into nmex Friday 
bringing windy conditions and mountain showers to the area. Fire 
weather conditions in the desert lowlands will be elevated and 
approach and or reach critical values for short intervals (but 
probably not for 3 hours) from 21z-23z Friday in an area covering 
eastern Hidalgo County south of Interstate 10 eastward to El Paso 
then eastward in far West Texas south of the Otero nmex County line. 
Temperatures will cool to below normal for Saturday and Sunday. 
Upper ridge then moves back in for a brief warm up Monday before 
another storm system moves in Tuesday and Wednesday for another 
chance of showers and cooler temperatures. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 48 73 43 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 45 70 42 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 44 72 41 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 42 69 40 58 28 / 0 0 20 0 0 
Cloudcroft 26 46 20 34 13 / 0 10 30 10 0 
Truth or Consequences 40 68 38 57 28 / 0 10 10 0 0 
Silver City 35 60 31 53 21 / 0 10 0 0 0 
Deming 42 71 40 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 42 71 40 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash/20 novlan