496 
fxus64 kmaf 182023 
afdmaf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
323 PM CDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Discussion... 
surface observations from earlier this morning showed a stationary 
front along the Pecos River valley. This front has since dissipated 
according to the latest surface observations...leaving mainly 
southerly flow in place. 


Southerly flow will remain intact tonight as a low-level jet 
develops this evening. Fog development does not appear favorable 
as surface wind speeds will likely keep the lower atmosphere mixed 
enough to stifle fog development. Some stratus development is 
possible across the Stockton plateau...lower trans Pecos and 
southeastern Permian Basin late this evening into Friday morning 
and we have increased cloud cover across the mentioned regions. 
Temperatures will warm to above normal levels on Friday based on 
the strength of the low-level thermal ridge...plenty of insolation 
and westerly downslope flow. Temperatures should be warmest along 
the Pecos River in Texas...where lower 80s are expected. 
Temperatures in the middle to upper 80s along the Rio Grande seem 
reasonable...with plenty of 70s for much of the remainder of the 
region. Winds will be gusty in the Guadalupe Mountains on 
Friday...but the potential for high winds continues to decrease 
according to the latest MOS guidance. We will continue to keep 
wind speeds just below warning levels for the guadalupes on Friday 
as the mslp gradient appears rather weak and 700mb west winds 
remain at or below 35kts. Little change has been made to 
precipitation chances on Friday...with isolated thunderstorms 
still possible across the western Low Rolling Plains along with a 
few showers back into northern Lea County. Much cooler weather 
along with a slight increase in precipitation chances can be 
expected Friday night and Saturday as as strong cold front moves 
into West Texas and southeast New Mexico. The latest model 
guidance does decrease quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...while generally keeping probability of precipitation 
similar to 00z model data. Little change has been made to the 
precipitation chances and expected weather through Saturday. A 
rain/snow mix appears favored generally along and north of the 
Interstate 20 corridor...with any accumulations of wintry 
precipitation remaining light and likely confined to northern Lea 
County...the northern Permian Basin and the western Low Rolling 
Plains. Stout north winds will provide cold air advection 
throughout the day Saturday and we have decreased temperatures a 
few degrees. Well below normal temperatures are in store Saturday 
night with a hard freeze possible for southeast New Mexico and 
much of the Permian Basin. 


Temperatures will begin to rebound Sunday...with near to just 
above normal readings expected by Monday and Tuesday. Another cold 
front should move through on Wednesday...although the latest European model (ecmwf) 
is holding the front up until Thursday. Another upper level storm 
system could bring a chance of precipitation to the area towards 
the middle of next week. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
we will keep Fire Weather Watch going for now across the 
mountains... southeast New Mexico plains...trans Pecos and 
western Permian Basin for Friday afternoon. Wind speeds look 
marginal in the plains. In addition...recent rains may have 
mitigated fire danger potential. Temperatures will cool Friday 
night as relative humidity/S slowly climb in the evening. A strong cold front 
will move through the area during the evening hours...bringing an 
abrupt wind shift to the north and northeast. Winds will also be 
gusty behind the cold front along with increasing rh/S. North 
winds will be slow to decrease on Saturday as much cooler air 
moves into the area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 47 76 34 47 / 0 10 30 20 
Carlsbad nm 40 74 35 48 / 0 0 20 10 
Dryden Texas 45 80 44 57 / 0 0 10 10 
Fort Stockton Texas 47 81 37 50 / 0 0 10 10 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 46 68 32 45 / 0 0 20 10 
Hobbs nm 41 72 32 46 / 0 10 30 20 
Marfa Texas 30 73 32 52 / 0 0 10 10 
Midland International Airport Texas 46 77 34 48 / 0 0 20 20 
Odessa Texas 47 78 34 49 / 0 0 20 20 
Wink Texas 44 80 36 52 / 0 0 20 10 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening 
for the following zones... Guadalupe Mountains np/Lincoln 
nf/lnz...southeast plains/blm Roswell/lnz. 


Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening 
for the following zones... Andrews...Crane...Davis/Apache 
Mountains area...Ector...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving... 
Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County 
and upper trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 corridor... 
Ward...Winkler. 




&& 


$$ 


12/06