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fxus65 kabq 200917 
afdabq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
317 am MDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 
current winter storm across the state is beginning to dissipate... 
except for along the Central Mountain chain. Will continue all 
highlights as is with the expectation that most of the region will 
be canceled at noon. Have added a Winter Weather Advisory for the middle 
Rio Grande Valley this morning as a nearly closed 700-500mb low 
pressure center churns southward out of the jemez mts. 00z model 
consensus handles this area of precipitation well...with the local WRF 
model most bullish on a couple inches of snow for the abq metropolitan 
area. 


Temperatures still expected to be 20 to 30f below normal today across 
much of the eastern half. Winds will also remain on the breezy side 
along the Texas state line where wind chills will hover in the 20s 
all day. Tonight will likely be the coldest night we have seen in 
quite a while across the area with widespread teens and 20s. 


A ridge will develop across the area Sunday/Monday with warming 
temperatures and lighter winds. The ridge will flatten into more zonal 
flow allowing winds to increase over the plains. The next system 
for Wednesday/Thursday is looking to be significant again across 
the northern half of the area. 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) are more bullish 
with the intensity of the 500 mb low and the surface front across 
the eastern half. Guyer 


&& 


Aviation... 
mountains obscured in areas/widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in -sn/br/fzfg 
Continental Divide to the Central Mountain chain and eastward to the Texas 
border this morning should begin a slow improvement after 18z. 
Wind gusts to around 35 kts to linger across same area. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper low/trough centered roughly over central New Mexico early 
this morning will continue to track to the east and southeast this 
morning. Snow will persist along and ahead of the trough...while 
some wrap around snowfall will linger in the Rio Grande Valley 
this morning. Gusty easterly winds along the east slopes of the 
Central Mountain chain and into the Rio Grande Valley...as well as 
northerly winds in the plains...should begin to taper off this 
morning. While snowfall should also start to taper off later this 
morning from northwest to southeast...temperatures will be 
significantly below average today. 


Ventilation trends will go from good to excellent today to poor to 
good Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the storms wake. 
Gusty northwest to north winds are possible along and east of the 
Central Mountain chain this evening through Sunday morning before 
the ridge takes hold. A warming and drying trend is in store Sunday 
and more so Monday...with temperatures rebounding to the 70s in the 
east Monday. With the ridge starting to flatten...ventilation looks 
like it will be improving Monday. 


Another storm system is now appearing to be aiming for New Mexico 
later Tuesday...and will linger through Wednesday. Track of this 
system is still varying somewhat from one computer model run to the 
next...so details of where most significant winds and precipitation 
will be are still uncertain. There will also be another strong cold 
front associated with this system...which will lower temperatures on 
Wednesday well below normal again. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 48 20 58 25 / 10 0 0 0 
Dulce........................... 39 9 52 18 / 20 0 0 0 
Cuba............................ 39 11 52 21 / 40 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 46 12 59 18 / 10 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 44 12 53 21 / 50 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 44 12 57 19 / 50 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 45 14 55 19 / 30 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 56 26 65 29 / 5 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 34 2 47 13 / 30 5 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 37 13 54 22 / 70 0 0 0 
Pecos........................... 33 12 51 25 / 60 5 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 32 2 48 16 / 40 5 0 0 
Red River....................... 25 6 40 17 / 50 10 0 0 
Angel Fire...................... 27 4 43 15 / 50 10 0 0 
Taos............................ 36 8 52 19 / 30 5 0 0 
Espanola........................ 43 16 59 22 / 40 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 35 18 51 24 / 60 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 38 21 54 26 / 60 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 40 23 56 29 / 80 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 42 27 58 31 / 80 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 43 23 61 26 / 80 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 43 25 60 28 / 80 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 45 19 62 23 / 80 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 42 24 59 30 / 80 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 47 27 63 30 / 60 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 20 53 27 / 100 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 35 22 53 26 / 80 5 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 33 18 50 27 / 80 5 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 39 23 54 29 / 70 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 43 23 59 31 / 70 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 33 25 50 32 / 70 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 28 16 47 23 / 60 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 36 14 53 21 / 60 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 34 18 53 25 / 60 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 36 21 58 30 / 50 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 38 26 57 28 / 50 0 0 0 
Conchas......................... 43 23 62 31 / 50 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 43 26 60 30 / 50 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 43 23 58 29 / 60 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 37 23 59 31 / 60 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 37 24 59 30 / 60 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 41 25 63 30 / 60 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 42 27 62 29 / 60 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 38 25 60 28 / 70 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 35 24 56 28 / 70 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following 
zones...nmz511>516-518-521>523-526>537. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the 
following zones...nmz510-517-524-525-538>540. 


Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for the following 
zones...nmz519. 


&& 


$$ 


Guyer 

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