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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
325 PM MDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


..next winter storm to impact northern/eastern nm starting Friday afternoon... 


Discussion... 
hopefully everyone enjoyed the warm weather as it will come to an 
abrupt end Friday afternoon as yet another winter storm takes aim for 
the land of enchantment. Latest ruc80 500mb analysis indicates the 
upper level ridge that brought warmer conditions has shifted east 
of the region while a strong trough migrates into the Great Basin. 
A weaker vorticity maximum is moving through Southern California at this time... 
but this will have little impact for New Mexico as it traverses the 
state tonight/tomorrow. Positively tilted trough axis will be along 
a line from NE Wyoming to Southern California by 12z/Friday with two main 
embedded vorticity lobes. Southern lobe in association with upper level 
jet will provide large scale ascent and track through the upper Gila 
region tomorrow afternoon...offering rain/very high elevation snow 
showers. In fact...even a few cracks of thunder are possible as the 
700-500mb lapse rates exceed 8c/km. Meanwhile...the more northern upper 
level feature will dive into The Four Corners region by late Friday 
afternoon and eventually through central nm during the overnight. 
Better dynamics will be available over northern/eastern New Mexico as divergence-q 
fields are lined up with strong low level frontogenesis...which is 
a strong indicator of substantial lift. In addition...strong cold 
air advection will take shape during the evening hours with 700mb 
temperatures dropping into the -12c to -15c range. This will allow 
for relatively high snow ratios in the higher terrain. To enhance 
the snow potential...a surface cold front will plunge through the 
NE plains by early Friday morning...ec plains by middle-afternoon and 
southeast plains around 03z/Sat. Low level upslope will not be perfect... 
although NE winds will support enhanced orographics along the eastern 
slopes of the sangres and potentially the Sandia/manzanos as well 
as the Central Highlands. Precipitable water readings upstream are 
greater than 200 percent of normal per the blended AMSU/SSMI satellite 
analysis...which will support some hefty snow totals for the higher 
terrain. 


Previous shift issue a Winter Storm Watch and will expand this into 
the central mountains/plains as well as the upper Rio Grande Valley. 
There is very high confidence that the sangre Delaware cristos as well as 
the adjacent Highlands will get pounded with snow. To grab some lead 
time and get the word out...will upgrade these zones to a warning. A 
strong northerly wind will develop behind the cold front in the eastern plains 
and will lead to widespread reduced visibilities in blowing/drifting 
snow as wet snow will quickly transition to dry powdery snow due to 
impressive cold air advection. In addition...high temperatures will 
be tricky as readings may experience their maximum during the early 
to middle-morning hours. 


Reinforcing upper level disturbance will track through the state on 
Sat...keeping the threat for quantitative precipitation forecast in the northern and Central High terrain 
and possibly in the High Plains. Will extend the watch/warnings to a 
00z/sun expiration to cover any delay in the ejection of the upper 
level disturbance. Future shifts always have the option to cancel at 
an earlier time if necessary. Readings will appear frigid for Sat... 
with the eastern plains being as much as 30f below seasonal normals. 


Quiet and warmer weather conditions are prognosticated for Monday/Tuesday before 
another upper level disturbance takes aim for New Mexico Tuesday night/ 
Wednesday. Dporter 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight. No 
real aviation hazards of major significance during the 
night...though through early evening to north of Interstate 40 and east 
of the mountains expect areas of southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots with 
some gusts into the 30s. During the Post daybreak early to middle 
morning hours across far NE and northwest ceilings will lower to MVFR category 
and drop further into IFR levels across the NE third or so of the 
state by or during the afternoon Friday. Expect MVFR to at least patchy 
IFR conditions north central and northwest nm spreading from north to S as the day 
progresses. Taf sites most impacted will include fmn...tcc and lvs 
and to a lesser degree saf...abq...gup. Lower...but non 
zero...potential for early to middle morning fog or low clouds Friday in 
far eastern counties to S of Interstate 40. Back door cold front 
ushering in the low ceilings Friday will also import moderate to strong north 
and NE winds. Some snow or rain changing to snow will develop across 
much of north third to half of nm as day progresses. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 43 


&& 


Fire weather... 
good to excellent overnight relative humidity recoveries are expected over much of 
the state tonight into early Friday with moisture increasing 
especially over the northern mountains and northwest plateau mainly 
Friday. In a few spots across north and central nm late tonight recoveries 
may locally be only fair. The next in what appears to now be a 
series of upper level storm systems will impact much of central and 
north nm Friday into Saturday. The highest likelihood of moderate to 
significant snowfall appears to be over the sangre Delaware cristo 
mountains and adjacent Highlands and plains to the east and southeast. Further 
south...windy conditions can be expected over the south and 
southeast...prior to the arrival of a strong cold front. South of 
the front...relative humidity values may drop into the teens for a time during 
Friday to go along with gusty 20 foot winds. Localized and 
relatively brief duration critical fire weather conditions may be 
possible until the front sweeps in. 


The storm system will ease out of the state by Saturday with period 
of warming and drying weather for the state Sunday to Tuesday. 
Following upper level storm system for next Wednesday into Thursday 
now showing signs of being of slightly lower impact to the state... 
especially western nm...than indicated by average model consensus 
of latest runs compared to earlier runs. This consensus could still 
revert back to the stronger and wetter solutions of last few runs in 
the future as this system is still 5 to 6 days out. Still should 
expect increasing precipitation chances...windy conditions and the 
potential for convection during this time period. More fine tuning 
to follow in the days ahead. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 36 52 26 49 / 10 40 5 5 
Dulce........................... 27 44 19 42 / 20 60 30 10 
Cuba............................ 28 47 19 40 / 5 70 30 20 
Gallup.......................... 29 48 19 46 / 5 40 5 5 
El Morro........................ 29 49 19 42 / 5 40 5 5 
Grants.......................... 26 51 20 45 / 0 40 10 5 
Quemado......................... 27 52 17 46 / 0 40 10 0 
Glenwood........................ 33 62 32 58 / 0 10 0 0 
Chama........................... 26 43 10 38 / 20 70 50 20 
Los Alamos...................... 33 49 17 40 / 5 50 40 20 
Pecos........................... 30 49 14 34 / 0 70 70 30 
Cerro/Questa.................... 25 42 12 35 / 10 70 60 20 
Red River....................... 24 34 8 28 / 10 80 80 30 
Angel Fire...................... 23 36 8 31 / 5 80 70 30 
Taos............................ 29 44 18 38 / 5 60 60 20 
Espanola........................ 34 54 24 44 / 0 40 40 20 
Santa Fe........................ 32 50 18 37 / 0 60 50 20 
Santa Fe Airport................ 33 53 22 39 / 0 50 40 20 
Albuquerque foothills........... 40 58 28 44 / 0 50 20 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 38 59 29 46 / 0 50 10 10 
Albuquerque valley.............. 40 60 26 47 / 0 40 10 10 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 59 27 46 / 0 40 20 20 
Los Lunas....................... 35 61 26 49 / 0 40 10 10 
Rio Rancho...................... 37 58 27 46 / 0 40 20 20 
Socorro......................... 35 65 32 52 / 0 30 10 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 32 45 16 35 / 0 50 50 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 52 22 38 / 0 40 50 20 
Clines Corners.................. 32 47 18 36 / 0 50 70 20 
Gran Quivira.................... 36 58 22 42 / 0 30 40 20 
Carrizozo....................... 35 63 28 47 / 0 10 20 10 
Ruidoso......................... 32 56 22 38 / 0 20 40 10 
Capulin......................... 28 31 14 28 / 5 60 80 20 
Raton........................... 29 38 16 33 / 5 60 80 20 
Las Vegas....................... 32 45 12 32 / 0 50 80 20 
Clayton......................... 34 37 17 32 / 0 30 70 20 
Roy............................. 35 42 19 33 / 0 30 80 10 
Conchas......................... 36 50 27 38 / 0 20 80 10 
Santa Rosa...................... 37 54 26 39 / 0 20 80 10 
Tucumcari....................... 37 50 24 35 / 0 20 80 10 
Clovis.......................... 37 56 23 36 / 0 20 50 10 
Portales........................ 37 58 22 38 / 0 20 50 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 37 59 26 41 / 0 20 60 10 
Roswell......................... 38 72 30 44 / 0 10 30 10 
Picacho......................... 37 67 28 43 / 0 10 30 10 
Elk............................. 36 61 26 42 / 0 10 30 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 6 PM MDT Saturday for the 
following zones...nmz512>515-527>529. 


Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon 
for the following zones...nmz516-521>523-530>533. 


&& 


$$ 


46/43 

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