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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
1128 am MDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010 


Update... 
updated the zone forecast product simply to remove morning weather wording across 
the southeast plains. Remainder of forecast on track. Dporter 


&& 


Previous discussion...314 am MDT Tuesday Mar 16 2010... 
quieter weather to develop over the forecast area 
today and Wednesday. A few scraps of shower activity are currently 
lingering in the eastern portions of Curry and Roosevelt 
counties...so will be forced to keep a very low grade pop there 
for this morning/S period of the forecast. Patchy fog will also be 
left in through the morning to account for some valley radiation 
fog aided by leftover snow pack...although not much has developed 
yet per 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery. Flow aloft will stay out 
of the north today as high amplitude ridge nudges its way into the 
southwestern states. A notable warming trend will begin today and 
continue into Thursday. Snow pack may inhibit temperatures from 
rising to their full potential in some northern and Central 
Mountain and Highland areas...but the snow melting process should 
be quite effective as our hours of sunshine are up to about 12 
hours now in middle March. We will still be a few degrees below 
normal today...but should nudge above normal by tomorrow and a 
couple more degrees by Thursday. 


By Thursday afternoon the ridge will have flattened some with the 
axis having shifted into the Central Plains of the nation. A Lee 
side cyclone will develop which could allow for some breeziness 
from the south southwest. Also by this time the clipper which 
would have earlier broken off of a broader Pacific low will be 
diving toward the central rockies. While the brunt of the upper 
dynamics still look to remain north of New Mexico...models are 
revealing solutions of the trough actually closing off in the Utah 
vicinity. Also...the back door front that will accompany this 
upcoming system looks to pack a stronger puch of chilly air 
arriving Friday night. Thus probability of precipitation are introduced into the forecast 
Thursday night over the northwestern zones...and probability of precipitation will favor 
the northern tier of zones through Saturday before tapering off 
into the northeast by Saturday night. Higher probability of precipitation near 50 percent 
over the northern mountains for Friday and Friday night have been 
posted...and model quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are being advertised to be much 
higher. Much colder air working in would suggest high snow 
ratios...so this will likely be the focus of upcoming forecast 
packages. 


Forecast for Sunday and Monday looks to remain dry as upper flow 
will transition/back more northwesterly...then more westerly. 


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Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue over the majority of New Mexico 
today. The only exception will be MVFR ceilings and scattered light 
rain showers from kcvs to krow. Drier air will filter in later 
this morning with VFR conditions expected for all sections today 
and tonight. Patchy fog and low clouds may develop Tuesday night 
into early Wednesday within the northern valleys...along the 
eastern slopes of the Central Mountain chain and over the 
eastern/east Central Highlands and plains. The day and evening 
shift will need to monitor this potential. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 21z. Kw 


Fire weather... 
threat for critical fire weather conditions remains low through the 
next week. 


Upper ridge to take residence over New Mexico for the next few days. 
Overnight relative humidity recoveries will be very good to excellent state wide 
but ventilation rates will be poor across the northwest and 
generally good over the central...south and east. Above normal 
temperatures and light winds over the west and central are expected 
Wednesday which will yield poor ventilation rates. 


The ridge will begin to flatten late Wednesday and early Thursday 
with more zonal to southwest flow taking shape. Lee side surface 
trough will give way to breezy conditions over the high terrain 
especially the Central Mountain chain and points east. Breezy to 
locally windy conditions possible Friday afternoon as a cold front 
edges south across the eastern plains. Ahead of the boundary...flow 
will remain out of the southwest and west with stronger gradient 
winds and more efficient mixing expected. There could be a brief 
period of localized critical conditions for a time but 3 hour 
criterion is not expected to be met at this time. This will need to be 
monitored by future shifts. 


Behind the cold front...moisture increases will occur over the east 
and eventually into the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday. In 
addition...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) have trended stronger...slower and 
further south with the next upper level disturbance for Friday into 
Saturday. There is more confidence this morning for another round of 
wetting precipitation favoring the northern high terrain and 
northeast Highlands/plains. Conditions appear cold enough for 
snowfall accumulations to occur but uncertainty in the exact track 
remains. 


Behind this system...upper ridge and northwest to northerly flow 
will take over through the middle part of next week with a return to 
dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures to open the 2010 
Spring season. 


Kw 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


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