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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
944 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Update... 
cancelled advisory across northern Lea County and increased probability of precipitation further 
across lower trans Pecos. 


&& 


Discussion... 
radar continues to indicate snow across lower trans Pecos. Movement 
is southeast. Web cam indicates that there is a dusting in the feet. 
Stockton area. So far just a trace of liquid on fst ASOS and any 
accumulations there expected to be 1/4 inch or less. Opted to 
increase probability of precipitation for the lower trans Pecos but will be short-lived. 
Otherwise decided to cancel Winter Weather Advisory across north Lea 
County at little early. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 844 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Update... 
update to bring rain/snow line farther SW and lower probability of precipitation across north. 


Discussion... 
radar and reports indicate light snow across parts of The Trans 
Pecos and a light dusting will be possible in places like feet. Stockton... 
alpine...and Marathon. Precipitation chances will decrease after 18z but 
there still could be light shower with wrap around moisture. Still 
windy through the morning for the most part as mslp gradient is still 
tight. However isallobaric high is well to the S-southeast of County warning forecast area. 
Another update in an hour so to expire west-southwest across north Lea County. 


Previous discussion... /issued 638 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion... 


Aviation... 
a band of rain/snow mix over the upper trans Pecos will continue 
to drift east across the Permian Basin through the morning. Have 
included tempos to handle this. Stratus with MVFR ceilings covers the 
area and extends to near The Big Bend... this should pull back to 
the east during the day as upper trough lifts. 


Previous discussion... /issued 511 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion... 
the potent upper level storm system is translating across New Mexico 
early this morning. The best lift ahead of this feature is spreading 
across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains...where the best 
coverage of light to moderate snowfall has occurred through the 
night. A secondary batch of lift rounding the base of the trough 
will bring a chance of a wintry mix to the Guadalupe Mountains... 
southeast New Mexico plains...upper trans Pecos region and the 
Permian Basin mainly through the morning hours. Still a chance for 
accumulating snows across northern Lea County...where the Winter 
Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 9 am MDT. We will issue 
a Special Weather Statement for the Guadalupe Mountains...the rest 
of the southeast New Mexico plains...and the northern Permian 
Basin...where some light snow accumulation could occur this morning. 
Little or no accumulation is anticipated farther south. Winds have 
been diminishing through Guadalupe Pass the past couple of 
hours...so we will cancel the High Wind Warning there. The upper low 
will move east of the region this afternoon...with probability of precipitation tapering 
from west to east in its wake. Temperatures will be much colder 
today...along with breezy north to northwesterly winds. 


Surface high pressure will settle across the region tonight with 
light west to northwest winds. Clearing skies and low dewpoints will 
favor radiational cooling...so have trended lows colder tonight. Dry 
northwest flow aloft returns Sunday...along with warmer 
temperatures. Monday and Tuesday look very warm as the surface Lee 
trough strengthens considerably. We raised high temperatures several 
degrees both days. The next upper level storm system will deepen 
near The Four Corners region Tuesday night...and will drift eastward 
toward our forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night. This feature 
is trending deeper/farther south than previous runs...and 
precipitation chances look a little more favorable Wednesday and 
Wednesday night...so probability of precipitation have been adjusted upward slightly. 
Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday and Thursday following the 
passage of the next cold front. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 41 27 61 33 / 20 0 0 0 
Carlsbad nm 45 26 64 30 / 20 0 0 0 
Dryden Texas 54 32 68 38 / 30 0 0 0 
Fort Stockton Texas 46 32 66 37 / 40 0 0 0 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 40 28 58 36 / 20 0 0 0 
Hobbs nm 41 24 62 31 / 30 0 0 0 
Marfa Texas 46 14 62 20 / 20 0 0 0 
Midland International Airport Texas 43 27 62 32 / 20 0 0 0 
Odessa Texas 43 27 62 32 / 20 0 0 0 
Wink Texas 47 27 67 30 / 20 0 0 0 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 


&& 


$$