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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
1021 am EST Wednesday Mar 10 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure over the region will provide one more day of mild and 
dry weather across western and central New York today. It will be 
quite warm Thursday and Friday with the possibility of a few showers 
as the high slides off to the east. A large area of low pressure 
over the plain states will then slowly move east and bring an 
increasing threat of rain during the upcoming weekend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
buf radar shows narrowing band of some light showers extending from 
ykf and yhm, southeast to dkk to the southern tier around Wellsville as of 
15z. This precipitation is aloft and is continuing to weaken as it moves 
into the ridge and drier air over New York. Vsbl sattelite shows 
band of middle to Upp level cloud extending from Lake Huron, southeast across 
western New York which is associated with middle level short wave lifting NE 
across southern Ontario and western New York. Behind this area there is a 
break in the clouds over NE Ohio and western PA which shld get into 
portions of the southern tier during the course of the afternoon. 


Only changes to earlier forecast is to bring more clouds into The 
Finger lakes this afternoon as the band of clouds over western New York 
moves NE and will bring some sun back into portions of the southern 
tier during the afternoon. No other changes to the previous forecast. 


Earlier discussion below... 


High pressure centered east of James Bay and ridging across New 
England will provide fair dry weather for our region with nothing 
more than some cirrus clouds and a little early morning fog. 


Temperatures will climb to the middle 50s over much of the region 
with some upper 50s at interior locations and middle 40s to low 50s 
east of Lake Ontario. Southeast to easterly winds will allow areas 
along the Lake Erie shore to reach the middle 50s without suffering the 
icy chill of lake erie's influence. 


The upper ridge axis will cross the forecast area this evening and 
will allow deeper moisture to move in during the night. Stronger low 
level warm advection and a few small vorticity maxima in the 
increasingly diffluent flow aloft will give US at least chance probability of precipitation 
for rain showers overnight. Will go with a NAM/sref blend which 
offers about 40 percent chance along the warm front...whereas GFS 
holds the precipitation well to the west of the region through tonight. 


Temperatures overnight will remain rather mild for early March with lows in 
the lower 40s for most of the area..the middle/upper 30s east of Lake 
Ontario. With the 850mb temperatures in the +4c to +6c range and surface 
temperatures above freezing across the board...will keep all precipitation liquid 
as rain showers. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
00z models continuing to suggest Thursday will have a good potential 
for staying dry. Sharp upper level ridge rebuilds over the area as 
upper low lifts into the Central Plains. Dry slot underneath this 
ridge is evident on all models. East to southeast flow will push 850 
mb temperatures into the +6 to +8c range. This will likely result in 
temperatures the warmest we have seen since last fall with highs 
well into the 50s to the lower 60s...and even a few middle 60s possible 
across the lowest elevations. 


Next surge of moisture and lift associated with warm front lifts 
northeast and across our region Thursday night and Friday morning. 
Quantitative precipitation forecast not overly impressive...generally in the 0.25 to 0.33 inch 
range. Temperatures still look quite warm Friday with most highs 
in the 50s to lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
models all in fairly good agreement during this period. Upper low 
and associated surface low drift east from Ohio Valley across PA on 
Saturday and to coast on Sunday. Then...its stalls out on Monday. 
Best surge of moisture and best lift occurs Sat afternoon and night 
with some heavy quantitative precipitation forecast potential...then just an occasional rain sun and 
Monday. Temperatures will gradually cool sun and Monday as surface low pulls off to 
the south and southeast of our region...causing winds to back to NE 
and eventually north. Still warm enough at all levels for all rain 
though as 850 mb temperatures stay above zero. European model (ecmwf) does pull low out 
later Monday with some improvement here on Tuesday...but 12z GFS 
holds the low along the coast all week...keeping US cool and 
occasionally damp for several more days. But...still not really cold 
enough for any flakes. With this in mind...will bump probability of precipitation up to high 
likely Sat....likely sun...and high chance Monday and Tuesday. May eventually 
have some Hydro issues...see hydrology section below. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
high pressure moving away across New England will provide fair 
weather through much of the day...but there will be a little light 
fog and MVFR visibilities to deal with very early in the taf 
period...dissipating within the first hour. 


VFR conditions should once again prevail across all of western and 
north central New York through the day. Warm advection aloft bring 
cirrus clouds and altocumulus during the course of the midday and 
afternoon. 


The approach of the warm front during the night will bring a chance 
of showers and ceilings lowering to around 4000-6000ft. Conditions 
should remain VFR. 


Outlook... 
Thursday and Friday...mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers. 
Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure settling over the lower lakes region will provide 
light winds and limited wave action today. Winds will turn easterly 
and will pick up enough tonight into Thursday to generate choppy 
conditions across Western Lake Ontario. Marine flags are not 
expected through the upcoming weekend. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
warmer weather in store from today through Friday but quantitative precipitation forecast looks 
minor...mainly Thursday nt. Most of snow should be gone from lower 
elevs by end of Friday...but still a decent amount of ice in some of 
the buf area creeks so we will have to keep an eye out for any 
jams later Thursday or Friday. In addition...heavier quantitative precipitation forecast is likely on 
Sat/Sat nt...perhaps over an inch...and this would result in Hydro 
issues. We will monitor and mention has been made in severe weather potential statement. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tma 
near term...jjp/wch 
short term...tma 
long term...sfm 
aviation...wch 
marine...tma 
hydrology... 

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