332 
fxus61 kbgm 211049 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
649 am EDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Synopsis... 
unseasonably mild temperatures will continue today, though there 
will be an increase in clouds north of a front across the middle 
Atlantic region. A storm system moving out of the south-central 
United States will spread rain into New York and PA Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast today as stationary front 
over the middle Atlantic begins to reform as a warm front. A few 
sprinkles or light showers are possible from southwestern New York up 
the lake plain. It will be mostly dry over the region today. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/... 
as warm front begins to edge northward Sunday night into early 
Monday, isentropic lift will be on the increase. Cannot rule out a 
rain shower or two over the region, but most of the moisture over 
the eastern Continental U.S. Will be drawn toward the cyclone spinning toward 
the lower Ohio Valley. 


Slower model trend continues, and it now appears steady rain will 
arrive sometime late Monday. Lack of flow aloft will cause the 
cyclone to slowly meander northeastward, keeping rain over New York and 
PA through Tuesday night. 


Best lift and moisture push is prognosticated from the Wyoming Valley to 
the Poconos, and possibly the lower Catskills region. Quantitative precipitation forecast totals 
in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range are forecast in this region, with 
lighter amounts forecast northward through New York state. We will continue 
to monitor quantitative precipitation forecast trends for flooding concerns. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
models continue to slow the departure of middle Atlantic closed low 
early in the extended period. Tuesday night as stacked low lifts 
northeast off the middle Atlantic coast will include chance probability of precipitation for 
much of County Warning Area. With overnight mins dropping into the lower 30s, 
mentioned both rain/snow showers. Remainder of extended dominated 
by polar vortex over southern Hudson Bay with mean upper level 
trough across the northeast United States. This will result in temperatures 
dropping back to more seasonal levels. Wednesday through Thursday 
will be mainly dry with surface high pressure in vicinity. Wednesday night, 
across northern forecast area have low chance probability of precipitation for rain/snow showers due to 
possible lake enhancement with GFS advertised t85 dropping to 
-8/-10c, although the European model (ecmwf) continues to run much warmer. Thursday 
night a surface cold front will drop through the area with a re- 
enforcing shot of cold air. Thursday night through Friday night 
will advertise chance/slight chance probability of precipitation across County Warning Area with snow showers 
possible during the overnight periods into middle morning. Surface high 
pressure will reside over eastern Canada on Saturday with surface low pressure 
vicinity North Carolina coast. Area will be dry and cool with just 
slight chance probability of precipitation for Wyoming Valley and Poconos. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/... 
overview...VFR weather expected through early tonight before an area of low 
pressure over the Ohio Valley brings the possibility of MVFR ceilings 
and areas of rain to the terminals after midnight. MVFR ceilings will 
become more likely during the day Monday as rain overspreads the area. 


An area of clouds around 10kft that moved out of the Ohio Valley 
overnight will remain in place today across the terminals. Lower 
ceilings along with a few rounds of showers will stay just to the 
north of the terminals as the flow in the middle levels remains out 
of the west-southwest. Could not rule out vcsh near ksyr roughly 
between 15z and 19z with showers now near Toronto moving east- 
northeast. Even if this happens...VFR ceilings are expected. 


Tonight an area of low pressure now over Arkansas will move 
northeast. As this happens ceilings will gradually lower with MVFR 
ceilings possible at kelm/kith/kbgm after 09z along the leading edge 
of rain. Both model guidance and model soundings indicate that 
MVFR ceilings are possible during this time...but the higher 
probabilities will occur closer to daybreak. For now will include a 
tempo group for this but if the new runs come in the same...we may 
be able to go prevailing. 


Winds will generally be out of the north to northeast early 
today...but will veer into the south at kavp and kbgm by late 
morning/afternoon as an old frontal boundary from yesterday lifts 
north. Winds variable and light tonight. 




Outlook... 


Mon/Tue...IFR/MVFR in areas of rain. 


Tuesday night...IFR/MVFR in rain improving to MVFR. 


Wednesday...improving to VFR. 


Wednesday night to Thursday...VFR. 


Late Thursday...MVFR ceilings possible in rain showers. 


Friday...MVFR ceilings possible in showers. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...djp 
near term...djp 
short term...djp 
long term...rrm 
aviation...heden