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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
929 am EDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will continue to spin just off the middle Atlantic coast 
today and keep plenty of clouds and a threat of a few showers over 
the area. Skies will clear by Tuesday as the low pulls away and is 
replaced by high pressure. A long stretch of dry weather is then 
expected from Tuesday into the first half of next weekend with mild 
temperatures and plenty of sunshine. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
made some adjustments to gridded and zone forecast product forecasts through today. 
Held onto likely probability of precipitation for a few more hours through midday to 
account for showers and widespread drizzle across much of the County Warning Area 
from Oswego County westward. Have also added afforementioned 
drizzle to the grids through midday from the Genesee Valley 
westward...hanging on most of the day across the higher terrain of 
the southern tier. Some wet snow may mix in on the highest 
hilltops of the southern tier and Finger Lakes through midday but 
expect no accumulation. Also added areas of fog into the higher 
terrain for much of today with low stratus layer intersecting the 
hilltops. Given extensive low cloud cover and brisk northeast 
flow...lowered forecast highs by several degrees. Expect lower 
elevations to only make it to the lower 40s this afternoon with 
upper 30s across higher terrain. 


Low pressure located off the middle Atlantic coast will remain nearly 
stationary today...the move out to sea tonight. A deformation zone 
well north of the low center extends east to west across New England 
and New York state. Radar shows showers moving westward along the 
deformation axis and models depict a lobe of vorticity with a few 
ill defined maxima associated with this area of precipitation. Will 
maintain likely probability of precipitation for showers as this lobe moves through the 
region during the morning...then lower probability of precipitation to chance during the 
afternoon and early evening. A lingering chance of showers will 
exist through midnight in the southern tier where orographic lift 
may support some light precipitation. 


Skies will clear overnight with drier air infiltrating from the 
north. While there wont be much in the way of cold air advection 
even with northerly winds...clearing skies and lower dewpoints 
will allow temperatures to fall to the lower to middle 30s overnight. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... 
nothing but great weather to talk about during this period. The low 
off the middle Atlantic coast mentioned in the near term discussion 
will continue to move out to sea with ridging and drier air across 
our County Warning Area. This will lead to mostly sunny days for both Tuesday and 
Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures above zero c will easily support 
highs in the 50s in most locations both days. The only exception 
will be within several miles south of the Lake Ontario shore and 
southeast of the Lake Erie shore Tuesday with lake breezes off the 
Cold Lakes. Wednesday the winds will back more to westerly and to 
southwest across Lake Erie. This will affect the Buffalo metropolitan area 
with cooler temperatures than Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 
at the start of the period height falls will spread across southeast 
Canada...which may allow a weak backdoor cold front to drop into the 
Saint Lawrence valley by Thursday morning..then south across the 
rest of the area Thursday and Thursday night. This front will wash 
out with southwest extent and pass through dry with nothing more 
than a modest increase in cloud cover. It will knock 850mb temperatures 
back a few degrees and bring a little cooler day Thursday. 


Heights will begin to rise again by Friday in response to upstream 
height falls over The Rockies and High Plains. This will allow for a 
moderation in temperatures aloft with highs back above average once again. 
There will be some lingering moisture from the previous backdoor 
front and developing warm air advection...but still expect enough sunshine to go 
with mostly sunny. On Saturday a deepening trough complex will move 
east across the plains. Southerly flow will increase across the Ohio 
Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature...transporting a plume 
of warmer air into the region. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) forecast 850mb 
temperatures to rise to +4c or better by Saturday afternoon. This combined 
with southerly downslope flow should allow highs to crack 60f on 
Saturday if the forecast pattern remains similar. Given the pattern 
recognition and excellent ensemble support for the operational model 
guidance...will go above MOS guidance this period. 


The pattern will remain progressive across noam with both the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) and almost all the ensemble members swinging the plains 
trough quickly across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday. 
This will bring the next chance of rain showers to the region. Deep 
southerly flow may transport enough moisture northward to bring the 
first thunder chances of the early Spring season along and ahead of 
the cold front...but will not include at this point given the 
inherent uncertainties regarding destabilization at that time range. 
High bust potential on temperatures with timing of a sharp cold 
front critical. Highs will probably make it well into the 50s or 
even 60s again ahead of the front...and much cooler behind. Current 
model guidance shows a midday frontal passage...so for now have gone with low 
to middle 50s in most of the area pending future fine tuning as the day 
grows closer. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
low pressure located south of the southern New England coast will 
drift slowly to the east today. Low level moisture to the north of 
this system will persist across central and western New York for a few 
more hours early this morning with marginal IFR ceilings lifting to MVFR 
by 14z-15z...then MVFR ceilings lifting to VFR overall shortly after 
16z. The last of the middle level moisture and clouds will erode during 
the afternoon and early evening with skies clearing after 00z-03z 
timeframe. This clearing may lead to some light fog with visibilities 
around 5sm after 06z-08z. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday through Friday..VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
a coastal low sitting off the middle Atlantic coast will continue to 
produce brisk northeast flow on Lake Ontario tonight today 
with small craft advisories continuing. The northeast winds will 
finally begin to diminish later this afternoon...although choppy 
conditions will linger through tonight. By Tuesday the coastal 
low will pull away...with lighter winds becoming more northwest on 
Lake Ontario. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
only one Flood Warning is out for the Tonawanda creek at rapids. 
This is a slow responding creek...so expect crest this evening 
about a foot above flood stage. This will just bring minor 
flooding to areas along the creek. The Reach of this forecast 
point includes the creek along the Niagara/Erie County border and 
also western Genesee County. 


The Black Creek at Churchville and Oatka creek at Garbutt will 
also remain high today...but expect these to crest just below 
flood stage. Otherwise the faster responding creeks in the Buffalo 
area are all receding and the Allegheny river has leveled off well 
below flood stage. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for 
loz042>045. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sage 
near term...Hitchcock/wch 
short term...Hitchcock/Sage 
long term...Hitchcock 
aviation...wch 
marine...wch 
hydrology...Hitchcock 

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