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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
725 am EDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Synopsis... 
low pressure over eastern Kentucky will move into southwest 
Pennsylvania by this evening then move east to be off the New Jersey 
coast by Tuesday evening. A ridge of weak high pressure over the 
Mississippi River Tuesday will move over the Ohio Valley through 
Wednesday and weaken. A cold front is expected to drop southeast 
across the area Thursday night then high pressure returns later 
Friday into Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
diffluent pattern aloft should help in allowing rain to continue to 
spread north over the County Warning Area this morning and continue into tonight. 
Most rain should be over southeast half of the County Warning Area with about a half an 
inch expected. Airmass could get marginally unstable enough for a 
few rumbles of thunder in the far south-southeast this afternoon. Current 
forecast temperatures from middle 40s to lower 50s remain on track. More brisk 
winds along the Lakeshore and in the western counties will add an 
additional chill to the air. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/... 
widespread rain will shift more into the eastern half of the County Warning Area by 
the end of the night as the upper and surface system shift east 
across the WV/Virginia Mountains. Could see another quarter to half an 
inch of possible rainfall so some rivers may see a decent rise 
tonight and Tuesday but at this time not really expecting flooding to 
occur as flood guidance considerably above this. 


Slow eastward retreat of rain continues Tuesday picking up speed Tuesday 
night as some drier air finally is drawn southeast into the County Warning Area. Temperatures 
generally remain was enough through the airmass for just rain 
although as the precipitation ends Tuesday night in the east there could be 
some wet snow start to mix in. 


High pressure spreading into Ohio should provide dry weather on Wednesday. 
General northwest flow off of the lake will mean cool temperatures for the 
Lakeshore counties from Lorain east. Latest met guidance looks to 
have better handle on this. 


High pressure and dry weather should continue into Thursday night until a 
cold front drops across the area. Marginal moisture with the front 
so will stay with just a small chance for rain or snow showers. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Sunday/... 
high pressure will be building into the region on Friday with a 
cooler northerly flow across Lake Erie. Models are generally in the 
minus 6 to 12 degree range at 850 mb which could support some snow 
Friday if the dry air does not overpower it. For now will keep a 
slight chance of snow/rain showers for Friday. High pressure will be 
over Lake Erie by Friday night and should end any lake effect 
precipitation. Warm advection should increase on Saturday with 
warmer temperatures returning for Saturday into Sunday. As the 
southerly flow increases on Sunday the region will see increasing 
low level moisture. Enough lift may be moving into western Ohio by 
Sunday afternoon/evening to generate some rain that may last into 
Monday. 


Friday will feel rather chilly with the northerly wind. Highs Friday 
will be below average and may not get out of the 30s near the 
Lakeshore. By Saturday into Sunday an increasing southerly wind flow 
will warm the area. Most locations will be within a couple degrees 
of seasonal averages. 


&& 


Aviation /10z Monday through Friday/... 
area of rain will continue a slow move northward as a surface low 
tracks across southern Ohio today. There may be just enough 
dynamics to generate a rumble or two of thunder near kcak and kyng. 
Confidence in this is not high enough at this time to add to the taf. 


Otherwise expect to see periods of rain through the day with MVFR 
conditions anticipated. There looks to be a period this morning 
where IFR conditions will be possible as the lower levels 
saturate from the heavier rainfall. Visibilities could dip to 2 
miles with the heaviest rain. Another period of low ceilings looks 
to arrive in the wake of the low pressure this evening into the 
overnight hours. 


Northeast winds will be gusty across the west and near the 
Lakeshore. Gusts around 25 knots will be possible....possibly 
higher out west and near the Lakeshore. Winds decrease slowly as 
they shift from northeast to northwest Tuesday morning. 


Outlook...non-VFR Tuesday. Non-VFR conditions possible Thursday 
night into Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
surface low pressure will deepen as it moves along the Ohio River 
valley today. This will tighten the gradient on the north side of 
the low with northeast winds expected to be around 30 knots. There 
is a period of time from middle afternoon to early evening that will 
need to be watched closely for the potential of winds reaching low 
end gales. For now will continue with the Small Craft Advisory and 
pass the concerns on to the next shift. Otherwise this area of low 
pressure and rainfall will gradually slide eastward tonight with 
winds becoming north and northwest by late tonight into Tuesday. 


High pressure is expected to ridge over Lake Erie for the middle of 
the week with light westerly winds anticipated. The next southern 
stream storm system will pass to the south of the region on Friday 
but will produce a stronger northeast to east wind on the lake. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EDT Tuesday for lez142>149. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Adams 
near term...Adams 
short term...Adams 
long term...Mullen 
aviation...Mullen 
marine...Mullen