374 
fxus61 kcle 181941 
afdcle 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
341 PM EDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Synopsis... 
an area of high pressure centered over the plains states and 
extending to the Ohio Valley will move south. A cold front will 
sag south across the Great Lakes this weekend. Low pressure is 
expected to develop on the front on Sunday and move east by 
Monday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
mainly cirrus clouds are expected overnight...they could be thick 
at times...partly cloudy should cover it. The clouds and some wind 
may affect the lows. The strongest winds will be in the extreme 
north. Elsewhere the radiational cooling will affect the low. 
However...they will not be as cool as last night. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday night/... 
some clouds and a southwest flow for Friday. A lake breeze could 
develop. The guidance for temperatures is a little low...raised 
temperatures some. 


Partly cloudy Friday night with some wind...that should keep 
temperatures up a little. 


The temperature forecast for Saturday through Monday...mainly the 
highs are very tough. A cold front will be moving in from the north 
Saturday. Some question as too how quickly it will move in. The 
toughest area is extreme Northern Ohio Saturday if the front sneaks 
in to quickly temperatures may not warm that much. At this time 
thinking it should not be until early afternoon...so will not 
forecast falling temperatures at this time. Just kept a chance 
mainly Northwest Ohio. 


For Saturday night and Sunday with a northeast flow this may 
decrease the chances of showers...so just kept it a chance. For 
Sunday night went with likely as the low and surface trough will be 
closer to the area. Highs on Sunday tough but with a northerly flow 
it should be cooler especially close to Lake Erie even with 850 mb 
temperates around 3 or 4 c. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
on Monday with the trough in the area likely probability of precipitation look good. Kept it 
rain as temperatures dont cool off aloft until Monday night and then 
conditions will be drying out. Highs on Monday tough but again an 
increasing northerly flow should keep things cool. 


Models showing low pressure center exiting the extreme east 
portion of our area on Tuesday as large high pressure moves into 
position. The high will move off the middle Atlantic coast late 
Wednesday. Another weather disturbance drops southward from the 
central Great Lakes region and eventually drags a cold front 
across the area. This will result in a chance of precipitation on 
Thursday. Temperatures near normal during the period. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
expect VFR conditions for this afternoon through Friday as high 
pressure dominates the weather pattern. A chance of some 
scattered showers late Saturday. 


Potential lake breeze wind shifts this afternoon at kcle and 
Keri...but confidence still low that the wind shift will reach 
Cleveland Hopkins Airport. 


Outlook...Friday through Saturday generally VFR conditions with 
very isolated MVFR fog possible each morning. Non VFR conditions 
Sunday and Sunday night with rain showers as a front moves into 
area and then low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley. 
Slowly improving conditions Monday and VFR conditions possible 
for Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure will be south of the lake through Friday and southwest 
flow will continue. A cold front will approach the lake from the 
northwest Friday night and will likely move to Northern Ohio 
Saturday before stalling. A wave will develop along the the front 
and keep a north to northeast flow on the lake through Monday night. 
Wind speeds may increase Sunday into Monday as the low is moving 
across Kentucky and WV. High pressure will build in late Tuesday. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kieltyka 
near term...kieltyka 
short term...kieltyka 
long term...British Columbia 
aviation...British Columbia 
marine...oudeman