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afdoun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
732 am CST Wednesday Mar 10 2010 


Update... 
middle-level moisture advection and instability is enough that 
showers and thunderstorms have developed from near Abilene to near 
Benjamin and Seymour ahead of the main wave. Have updated the 
forecast to add the scattered showers/storms in the south this 
morning. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 607 am CST Wednesday Mar 10 2010/ 


Aviation... 
stratus spreading over Kansas may affect kpnc this morning 
although current trends suggest these low clouds may primarily 
stay to the north. A storm system will approach the area with a 
chance of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma and strong 
west/southwest winds into southwestern Oklahoma and North Texas. A 
cold front extends from southwest into central Oklahoma this 
morning. As this front lift north ahead of the storm system... 
winds will be variable in direction at khbr and kcsm. 


Previous discussion... /issued 418 am CST Wednesday Mar 10 2010/ 


Discussion... 
a lot on The Table today with both fire weather potential south 
and thunderstorms north. Storm system over New Mexico will move 
east- northeast and over Oklahoma this afternoon. Surface boundary 
is already taking shape from southwest Oklahoma to east central 
Oklahoma although this will lift north this morning. Showers and 
thunderstorms will be likely north of the frontal boundary this 
afternoon and precipitation is already being observed in eastern New 
Mexico and the northwestern Texas Panhandle. But dry slot will 
move through North Texas and southern Oklahoma south of the upper 
low which will usher in dry low-level air and gusty west/ 
southwest winds. Have issued a Wind Advisory for our Texas 
counties... and a red flag warning for North Texas and portions of 
southwest/south central Oklahoma where afternoon relative humidity values near or 
less than 20 percent are expected. There will be some risk of 
severe weather across north central Oklahoma as the upper low and 
associated cool middle-level air approach... and an outside chance 
in the east central and southeast portion of the County Warning Area should the 
dry air not spread as far east as expected. Showers/storms will 
linger north this evening in the proximity of the upper low moving 
into southeast Kansas. 


Another wave moving through the area pivoting around the larger 
upper low in western Missouri will provide low chances of precipitation 
on Thursday night/Friday. Medium range models are now in better 
agreement with moving an upper low southeast from the Great Basin 
toward southwest Texas or northern Chihuahua early next week... 
although have significant disagreement on the position of the 
surface front to our south. GFS keeps front in North Texas and 
therefore brings much higher rain chances. The front is much 
farther south in the European model (ecmwf) keeping main area of precipitation to the 
southwest. Have upped probability of precipitation in the later extended periods with 
this... but not as high as mex MOS would give. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 65 39 59 37 / 20 10 10 20 
Hobart OK 60 35 58 35 / 20 10 10 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 67 38 64 38 / 30 0 10 20 
gage OK 53 31 53 32 / 50 20 10 0 
Ponca City OK 62 39 52 37 / 50 40 10 20 
Durant OK 70 43 63 41 / 20 10 10 20 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 6 PM CST this 
evening for okz036-037-039-044>046-050. 


Texas...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 6 PM CST this 
evening for txz083>090. 


Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz083>090. 


&& 


$$ 


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