546 
fxus64 ktsa 190908 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
408 am CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Discussion... 
all attention this morning is focused on the high impact winter 
storm that will affect much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest 
Arkansas over the weekend. Temperatures will soar into the upper 
60s to lower 70s today making the upcoming change in the weather 
that much more dramatic. 


A strong cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma before sunset 
and will sweep across the area overnight and early Saturday 
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the wake of the 
front with some of the precipitation changing to sleet and snow 
northwest of Tulsa towards morning as temperatures fall below 
freezing. 


Periods of rain...sleet and snow will occur Saturday but any snow 
accumulations through the day will likely remain relatively 
minor...generally no more than an inch or two on grassy areas. 


Upper low closes off near Wichita Falls Saturday evening and 
deepens as it moves to the arklatex by Sunday morning and into 
northern Mississippi by Sunday evening. It is during this period 
of deepening that snow rates will increase markedly and have 
expanded the Winter Storm Watch to include areas roughly along and 
north of a line from McAlester to Fayetteville. Will still begin 
the watch Saturday morning but the main impacts will be Saturday 
night into Sunday morning when the heaviest snow will fall. 


Snow accumulations will likely exceed 10 inches wherever the 
heaviest band of snow sets up and right now the model consensus 
favors far northeast Oklahoma for this. Accumulations may be even 
greater than forecast...but have to account for some loss due to 
melting given the time of year. 


Once this system exits the area...a rapid warmup will melt all the 
snow within 24 to 48 hours much as it did with the storm late last 
March. Thus the impact on temperatures into early next week will 
be minimal beyond Monday. Another storm system will bring the next 
chance of precipitation Wednesday into Thursday...but there will 
be no risk of any snow with this system. 


Did not stray too far from guidance temperatures the next couple 
days except went a bit cooler Saturday in parts of northeast 
Oklahoma per the nam12 temperatures. Followed a GFS/European model (ecmwf) blend 
for temperatures in the extended. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 72 32 33 31 / 20 90 90 70 
fsm 71 46 54 34 / 0 60 90 90 
mlc 71 39 40 31 / 10 70 90 70 
bvo 71 30 33 31 / 20 90 90 70 
fyv 67 44 48 32 / 0 60 90 90 
byv 67 42 43 31 / 0 50 90 90 
mko 71 39 40 31 / 10 80 90 80 
Mio 69 33 34 31 / 10 80 90 80 
f10 71 36 36 31 / 10 80 90 70 
hhw 71 48 50 32 / 10 60 90 70 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Winter Storm Watch from 7 am Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for okz054- 
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz062- 
okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070- 
okz071-okz073. 


Arkansas...Winter Storm Watch from 7 am Saturday to 7 PM Sunday for arz001- 
arz002-arz010-arz011. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...17 
long term....05 


Plate