240 
fxus66 kmfr 211601 
afdmfr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
901 am PDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion...the region will be mostly cloudy...a little rainy... 
and 10-15 degrees cooler today with the arrival of a cold 
front. The front is moving inland across south central Oregon at 8 
am. Rainfall amounts around 2 tenths of an inch have occurred across 
the Coast Range...with locally up to nearly an inch in Curry 
County. Elsewhere across SW Oregon amounts have been generally 
around .05". 


The airmass will destabilize this afternoon with temperatures 
dropping 2-4 degree c above 850 millibars. This combined with the 
approach of the upper trough axis should allow for some decent 
shower activity across the coast...Umpqua...and Cascades. The 
lifted index should dip slightly below zero around North Bend 
and over Lake County...so a stray lightning strike is not out of 
the question there. Showers will end tonight for the south and 
east...but are likely to continue into Monday morning over the 
favored areas in SW Oregon in moist onshore west flow. 


Drying...ridging and similar temperatures Tuesday...then warmer with 
south flow increasing Wednesday ahead of another trough. This 
system should push in with a decent cold front Wednesday night 
bringing widespread precipitation again to mainly the west side. 
Confidence is lacking on how later Thursday through the weekend 
will pan out. Despite mixed solutions...perhaps the stronger 
consensus is drier weather under general ridging until another 
cold front and the beginning of a stormier period sometime 
Saturday night or Sunday. Stavish 


&& 


Aviation...showery weather. Cascades and Siskiyous partially obscured 
through tonight with mostly VFR ceilings inland. At the coast MVFR 
conditions will prevail through 00z...then some improvement there 
tonight with ceilings thinning and rising a bit into early Monday. 


&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 


California...none. 


Pacific coastal waters...none. 


$$