218 
fxus65 kboi 101021 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
321 am MST Wednesday Mar 10 2010 


Short term...today through Thursday...the weak upper level trough 
over Washington and Oregon is weakening further as it approaches our 
area this morning. So far mostly middle level and high clouds are 
associated with this system. The only reported measurable 
precipitation has been light snow at Burns. Both the GFS and NAM 
indicate measurable precipitation across southeast Oregon and the 
higher terrain of southwest Idaho today. So we increased probability of precipitation a 
little above MOS across most of our zones for this period. Expect 
flurries to end by this evening with the upper level low center 
having moved over southern Utah. Ridging tonight and Thursday will 
maintain dry weather. As the ridge axis shifts east on Thursday 
southwest flow aloft and increasing down valley surface winds will 
warm daytime temperatures 5-7 degrees above today/S...despite 
increasing high clouds ahead of the next Pacific weather system. 


Long term...Thursday night through Wednesday...milder and dry 
conditions will persist through Friday as an amplified upper ridge 
moves over the forecast area. The pattern stays progressive with 
another Pacific short wave approaching from the coast late Friday 
night. Gusty southeast to southwest surface winds Friday ahead of 
this next system will allow temperatures to warm well into the 50s 
and even lower 60s in a few locations. Increasing clouds in Oregon 
may hinder potential warming there however. Models showing a 
vigorous disturbance moving across the area Saturday then forming a 
closed low in The Four Corners area. This Saturday feature brings 
the best chance of significant rain and snow for our area for about 
a week. A more persistent and larger upper ridge aloft develops over 
the western U.S. Next week which models show building over our area 
with overall pattern becoming less progressive across the northern 
tier of states. 


&& 


Aviation...areas of light snow with MVFR ceilings and visibility 
spreading southeast from kbno to kboi and ktwf through the morning 
as a weak disturbance aloft moves from west to east. VFR expected 
over kbno and kbke after 18z as clearing develops west of upper 
trough. System a fast mover thus MVFR conditions this morning with 
mountain obscuration in the southern areas will give way to VFR 
conditions quickly during the day. Light to moderate west to 
northwest surface winds and moderate west winds aloft. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...jt 
long term....gs/bb 
aviation.....Gs