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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
1040 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Update... 
ongoing forecast in good shape. Precipitation continues to tapper 
off and shift eastward along with the upper level storm system. 
Expect the light snow to exit The Caprock by around midday and 
shift east of eastern zones by early to mid-afternoon. Winds will 
remain gusty from the north before slowly diminish this afternoon. 
These winds could create some areas of blowing snow in the wide open 
exposures...but calls around the area suggest that the blowing 
snow is not much of an issue now. Thus...may end up trimming the 
western end of the advisory as the snow diminishes late this 
morning or early this afternoon. 


Of note...snowfall totals reported so far across the area were 
mostly in the 1-2 inch range. Amounts were a little lighter across 
the southern row of counties where a trace to an inch was more 
common. The highest report was in Parmer County where around 3 
inches fell. Some drifts in The Ditches near Farwell were reported 
to be several feet deep. A graphicast highlighting the snow totals 
received so far has been posted to our web Page and a pns will 
likely be issued this afternoon. Do not expect much in the way of 
additional accumulation before all is said and done later 
today...though the northeast zones could see an additional half 
inch or inch. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 619 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Aviation... 
upper level storm system will traverse the area this morning 
bringing an end to the remaining light snowfall later this morning 
at klbb and by this afternoon at kcds. Blowing snow will have the 
potential to bring visibility below VFR values through middle afternoon at 
both terminals as gusty nearly winds continue. High pressure builds 
into the region this evening with clearing skies and slowly 
decreasing winds. 26 


Previous discussion... /issued 458 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Short term... 
upper level storm system currently poised over northern New Mexico 
will continue pushing eastward today toward North Texas while 
deepening. The first band of forcing/precip...presently located across 
the eastern half of the County warning forecast area looks to be the strongest with another 
weaker batch moving into the western zones. There is some risk of 
a third round...associated with the core of the upper low...which 
could affect the region later this morning and exit the northeastern 
zones this afternoon. Overall...expect additional accumulations 
after sunrise to be fairly light /one inch or less/ although blowing 
snow will continue to be a potential issue area wide as gusty 
winds continue through early afternoon. Cloud cover should begin 
to thin out late this afternoon as downslope flow increases with 
associated drying. 


Subsequent forcing/ascent and associated precipitation prognosticated 
through midday appears to notably weaker than that experienced 
overnight...and this is evident in the waning snow shield now 
entering the central zones. Given maximum accumulations thus far in 
the 2 to 3 inch range...and limited potential for additional 
accumulation...will downgrade the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter 
Weather Advisory for snow and reduced visibilities in blowing snow 
through 21z. 


Long term... 
given the focus on short term winter weather conditions...only a few 
changes were made to the long term forecast/grids. Attention this 
period was limited to the middle week storm system. The latest 
solutions have trended cooler/deeper with the upper air trough/low ejecting 
over the southern rockies and plains Wednesday. These trends may 
support an increased chance of snow late Wednesday/Wednesday night 
and into early Thursday. Thus have lowered temperatures Wednesday 
and expanded the mention of rain/snow mix temporally and spatially 
on The Caprock. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 34 20 51 29 69 / 40 10 0 0 0 
Tulia 32 22 49 30 69 / 50 10 0 0 0 
Plainview 32 22 50 31 69 / 50 10 0 0 0 
Levelland 35 24 52 30 71 / 40 0 0 0 0 
Lubbock 32 25 51 32 70 / 50 10 0 0 0 
Denver City 38 26 54 30 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 
Brownfield 37 26 53 32 71 / 40 10 0 0 0 
Childress 33 25 48 33 69 / 60 10 0 0 0 
spur 35 27 50 34 70 / 50 10 0 0 0 
Aspermont 34 27 52 34 69 / 50 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for the 
following zones: txz021>044. 


&& 


$$ 


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