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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
1136 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Aviation... 
few to scattered middle level clouds moving northwest to southeast across County warning forecast area late 
this evening. Surface winds light from northwest across taf sites. Dewpoint 
spread getting closer at cxo than other taf sites with faster 
lowering of temperature last several hours. We did mention light fog 
for cxo for later tonight. Winds becoming NE late Thursday and 
then southeast Thursday evening (for most taf sites). Aside for possible 
light fog (early morning) for cxo...VFR prevailing for taf sites 
through Thursday. 37 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 901 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010/ 


Discussion... 
water vapor imagery shows an upper low near the arklatex region 
which will drop south through the area overnight. Gpsmet data 
shows very dry airmass in place with precipitable waters  0.50 inch or less. 
Expecting this system to generate just some scattered middle level 
cloudiness. Associated weak reinforcing front now approaching the 
coast. 1025 mb surface high will build into the area in the wake of 
the front resulting in temperatures a few degrees cooler tonight compared 
to last night. Ongoing forecast looks good only change was tweaks 
to the sky cover grids. 


35 


Previous discussion... /issued 822 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010/ 


Aviation... 
surface high pressure prevailing over County warning forecast area during this taf 
forecast period. Scattered to broken middle level clouds moving over northern 
zones evening hours. Surface northwest winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light 
around midnight inland sites. VFR. 37 


Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010/ 


Discussion... 
another nice Spring day across southeast Texas. Temperatures warmed a few 
degrees higher than forecast with more of an offshore flow. High 
pressure will move across East Texas overnight providing generally 
clear skies and light winds as the winds decouple. Onshore winds 
will develop by Thursday evening and strengthen Friday as low pressure 
over the western High Plains deepens. An upper level trough 
coupled with a surface cold front will bring a chance of showers 
on Saturday. The European model (ecmwf) and NAM are more aggressive with rain 
chances on Saturday. Both models show rather strong upper level 
dynamics with slightly higher moisture levels. The GFS and 
Canadian models are a bit drier with much weaker dynamics. All 
the models show strong low level convergence along the surface 
front. Will let the probability of precipitation stay as is for Saturday and will wait for 
better model consensus. Sunday through Tuesday look nice with cool 
temperatures on Sunday warming to seasonal levels by Tuesday. Another 
storm system will approach Texas on Wednesday and will bring 
renewed rain chances next Wednesday and Thursday. 43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 42 70 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Houston (iah) 45 72 45 73 54 / 0 0 0 10 20 
Galveston (gls) 53 67 53 69 61 / 0 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$