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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
635 am CDT Monday Mar 15 2010 


Aviation... 
/12z tafs/ 


Isentropic lift beneath 850mb has spread south of the Red 
River...and MVFR ceilings will envelop metropolitan taf sites by 12-13z 
(7-8 am cdt). A separate area of lift is impacting central 
Texas...but the easterly flow around 900mb is rather dry. Still 
expect broken VFR ceilings at Waco as the morning progresses. Have 
introduced -shra to all taf sites after 06z (1 am cdt) tonight. 


25 


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Previous discussion... /issued 320 am CDT Monday Mar 15 2010/ 
clouds will be on the increase across North Texas today as a low 
pressure system approaches from the west. Most of the 
precipitation today should remain over the western half of the 
state. However...a few showers may reach the western zones of 
North Texas by this afternoon. Rain chances will increase 
tonight/Tuesday morning as the system translates eastward across 
central Texas. The best rain chances will be across the southern 
half of the region...closest to upper dynamics. There may be enough middle 
level instability to support a few thunderstorms. Rain chances 
will end from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon as the 
trough axis shifts east of the region. Warmer and rain-free 
conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday as upper level 
high pressure builds over the region. 


Low level moisture will be on the increase Friday as a surface 
trough deepens across the High Plains and an upper trough 
approaches from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
be possible near the Red River Friday afternoon and across all of 
North Texas Friday night/Saturday morning. The best rain chances 
should be in the eastern zones late Friday night/Saturday morning when 
lift is maximized along a cold front. Precipitation chances will 
end quickly Saturday evening when drier and cooler air invades the 
region. Overnight lows Saturday night/Sunday morning will be in 
the 30s in most locations. For now it appears that temperatures 
will remain above freezing but will be watching this closely in 
future forecasts since the growing season has begun. 


79 


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Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 64 50 63 44 64 / 5 30 30 0 0 
Waco, Texas 65 51 60 41 67 / 5 30 50 0 0 
Paris, Texas 64 46 60 42 61 / 0 10 20 0 0 
Denton, Texas 62 48 62 38 67 / 5 20 30 0 0 
McKinney, Texas 63 47 61 39 63 / 0 20 20 0 0 
Dallas, Texas 64 49 62 44 65 / 5 20 30 0 0 
Terrell, Texas 66 48 62 41 66 / 0 20 30 0 0 
Corsicana, Texas 66 49 62 43 66 / 0 30 30 0 0 
Temple, Texas 66 50 61 42 69 / 5 40 50 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


25/79