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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
332 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 


First we/ve added Tarrant...Dallas...rockwal...Kaufman and Virginia 
zandt counties to the existing west-southwest. 


It is a very complicated forecast for the next 30 hours due the 
winter weather invading the northern County Warning Area. A very intense winter 
cyclone is in the making for the central and Southern Plains... 
standardized 500 mb anomalies are running up to minus 4.0 as the 
upper low tracks east of I-35 and into Louisiana Saturday night 
into Sunday morning. 


A strong cold front was along a Bonham to Goldthwaite line at 3am and 
moving about 16 knots southeast. It should clear Palestine and 
Centerville around 9am. Cold air is filtering in behind the front 
and will send temperatures down to near freezing over the 
northwest counties by middle afternoon. Forecast soundings north of 
I-30 are all favorable for dendrite production down to I-30 
tonight. Models over the last several runs continue to indicate a 
strong trowel signature over Oklahoma that noses down into North 
Texas Saturday night through early afternoon Sunday. The most 
likely areas to be affected by this feature will be north of a 
Denton to Emory line with Fannin and Lamar counties in the 
crosshairs for 3 plus inches of snowfall. For this reasoning 
we/ve added some counties to west-southwest...including the metroplex where 
northern Dallas County could see one inch. Would expect the 
snowfall to affect I-35...Denton and northward...this evening and 
overnight. Travel into Oklahoma will be diff cult and treacherous. 
A strong pressure gradient will result in northwest winds of 20 to 
30 miles per hour with gust to 40 miles per hour later this afternoon and again on 
Sunday. A Wind Advisory for all but the far eastern counties will 
be in effect this afternoon. Another freeze will occur over the 
northwest half Sunday morning...and over the northwest County Warning Area and 
north of I-30 Monday morning. 


The upper low will pull away from North Texas on Monday with 
temperatures rebounding through Wednesday. Our next system will 
arrive midweek with showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday 
night and Thursday. Friday should be dry and seasonal. 75 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 41 32 45 35 65 / 100 40 20 5 0 
Waco, Texas 43 32 54 34 68 / 90 5 10 5 0 
Paris, Texas 51 32 37 31 57 / 100 80 70 5 0 
Denton, Texas 40 32 44 32 65 / 100 50 20 5 0 
McKinney, Texas 44 32 43 32 63 / 100 60 40 5 0 
Dallas, Texas 42 32 45 35 65 / 100 40 20 5 0 
Terrell, Texas 47 32 44 34 63 / 100 40 30 5 0 
Corsicana, Texas 49 33 48 34 66 / 100 10 10 5 0 
Temple, Texas 44 33 57 34 71 / 80 5 10 5 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening 
for txz091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT 
Sunday for txz094-095-105>107-120>123. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 9 am this morning to 4 PM CDT 
Sunday for txz093-104. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 9 am this morning to 7 am CDT 
Sunday for txz091-092-100>103. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 am CDT 
Sunday for txz118-119. 




&& 


$$ 


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