989 
fxus64 kbro 220750 
afdbro 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
250 am CDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Short term /now through 6 PM Tuesday/...big blue h keeping skies 
clear and winds calm area wide this morning. High pressure will 
control the region for the next 24 hours...with continued blue 
skies and light southeast winds. Dry air at the surface will allow 
large diurnal temperature range from morning lows around 40 to to 
highs today in the middle to upper 70s. Lows will be around 50 
tonight as southeast flow brings higher dewpoints into the region. 
Highs in the lower 80s Tuesday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...models remain 
consistent in the amplified moderately progressive middle to upper 
flow. As a result south Texas is expected to see another but 
weaker cold front on Thursday followed by a moderately strong cold 
front next Sunday. Southeast winds well underway the beginning of 
the this period to increase the moisture while temperatures 
continue to warm. Low chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday with 
south Texas coming under the influence of the upstream trough and 
Thursday/S cold front. Limited cooling and dry air behind the 
front through Friday with winds returning southeast Friday night. 
Similar to the first half of the extend moisture slowly deepens 
through the weekend with the next front indicated to arrive late 
Sunday with a small chance of rain. Temperatures look seasonal at 
this point but could see cooler evenings if drier air infiltrates 
the valley. 


&& 


Marine...now through 6 PM Tuesday...at 1am buoy020 reported north 
winds at 4kts and seas 1.5 feet. High pressure across the 
northwest Gulf will bring tranquil conditions through Tuesday 
morning. Southeast winds will increase to around 15 knots Tuesday 
as gradient increases between departing high and approaching cold 
front. Seas will remain 3 feet or less. 


Tuesday night through Friday...southeast winds to increase and 
seas slowly build with the pressure gradient gradually tightening 
into Thursday morning. Low pressure trough to advance east with 
low pressure over North Texas to fall Wednesday. Winds and seas to 
peak Wednesday night in advance of a Thursday cold front. The 
front looks to pass late afternoon. Moderately strong north winds 
may approach Small Craft Advisory conditions in wake of the front. 
North winds Friday morning slowly veer and weaken Friday afternoon 
as high pressure to build over the western Gulf. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions through 24 hours with clear skies and 
light southeast flow. Breezy low level jet not strong enough to warrant 
speed shear in tafs. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Bayview/Port Isabel 71 54 78 63 / 0 0 0 10 
Brownsville 76 53 80 63 / 0 0 0 10 
Harlingen 77 51 82 62 / 0 0 0 10 
McAllen 79 51 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 
Rio Grande City 81 52 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 
South Padre Island 66 61 73 63 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


This product is also available on the web at: 
http://www.Weather.Gov/Brownsville 


64...short term 
59...long term