554 
fxus61 kbtv 182000 
afdbtv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
400 PM EDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Synopsis... 
a weak warm front will move through the region overnight and early 
Friday. A weak cold front will move through the north country on 
Saturday and then stall just south of the region Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
as of 359 PM EDT Thursday...a weak warm front will move through 
the region overnight...with just some clouds and no precipitation 
expected. Have gone near or just above GFS MOS min temperature 
guidance for overnight mins. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/... 
as of 359 PM EDT Thursday...the warm front will move east of the 
region by early Friday morning. Expecting partly sunny skies. MOS 
guidance has been too cool with maximum temperatures the past several 
days...so have gone above MOS for maximum temperatures for Friday. 
This means potentially some record high temperatures for March 
19th. See the climate section below for additional details. Have 
gone above MOS guidance for min temperatures Friday night. 


On Saturday...a weak cold front will move south through the 
region. Just expecting some clouds with this front and no precipitation. 
Maximum temperature forecast for Saturday is tricky...given the weak 
cold front to come through...but have generally gone above MOS guidance 
for maximum temperatures on Saturday...especially given the fact that 
MOS guidance has been too cool the last several days with maximum temperatures. 
GFS model showing some overrunning rain showers will develop 
across the region north of the cold front Saturday night...so have 
gone with chance probability of precipitation for Saturday night. GFS model indicating 
colder air at 850 mb to work into the region late Saturday 
night...so have indicated a chance of snow showers above 1000 feet mean sea level 
after midnight Saturday night. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
as of 257 PM EDT Thursday...complicated forecast for the extended... 
especially during the first part of the period. Plenty of 
uncertainty as models having a hard time agreeing on how to handle 
timing and placement of surface system and upper level low during 
the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. 


Will start out at 12z Sunday with a front stretched just to the 
south of the forecast area. Expect this feature to wobble around 
central New England through Sunday and Sunday night as surface low 
pressure moves from the arklatex region northeast into the Middle 
Atlantic States. Exact placement of this front is difficult to 
pinpoint for any one time which means maximum/min temperatures are a bit 
tricky. For now...it looks as though front should be south of the 
area Sunday so expect temperatures to be a bit cooler than those on 
Saturday. The front then will lift north as a warm front Sunday 
night and should reach the international border by 12z Monday. As 
such expect low temperatures to generally be in the 30s with some 
lower 40s south. Don/T see much precipitation with this front...so went 
with just a chance of rain/snow showers for the end of the 
weekend. 


Monday through Tuesday...high pressure across Canada keeps surface low 
pressure over middle Atlantic shunted to the south. Meanwhile...cutoff 
upper low moves from the Tennessee River valley across the middle 
Atlantic and off shore. Showers will spread into the north country 
Monday and linger Monday night before tapering off from west to east 
as the low moves away from the area. Cold air associated with this 
system will flirt with the Canadian border through Monday and 
Tuesday...but expect the forecast area will remain in the warmer air 
until the front begins to slowly seep southward Tuesday night. As 
such...precipitation will fall as rain during the day while mixing 
with or changing to snow during the overnight hours. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are 
difficult to ascertain at the moment as models show big 
discrepancies on amount and placement of precipitation. 00z European model (ecmwf) keeps the 
bulk of the activity across southern New England GFS brings the 
heavy amounts much further north into much of Vermont and northern 
New York. Tend to favor the European model (ecmwf) solution but the situation will 
continue to need monitoring. 


Thereafter...ridge briefly builds across the region Wednesday 
followed with fair weather expected. Highs will be in the middle 40s. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
through 18z Friday...VFR expected at all sites through the first 24 
hours. Satellite imagery shows mainly scattered to occasionally 
broken clouds across most of the north country. This will continue 
through this afternoon before broken ceilings of 4-6 kft settle over 
the region as a weak front slips south from Canada. This front will 
shift back north late tonight and should allow clouds to thin out a 
bit Friday morning. Winds will be mainly west to northwest through 
this evening with krut/kmpv/kslk all seeing gusts to 18 kts. Winds 
die down by 00z as daytime mixing comes to an end. As the 
aforementioned front moves back north...winds will turn to the south 
by 12z and should remain 5-10 knots through the morning. 


Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday... 
18z Friday through 00z Sunday...VFR under partly cloudy skies. 
00z Sunday through 12z Monday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain 
showers possible. 
12z Monday through 00z Wednesday...MVFR with local IFR in rain 
showers. Gusty surface winds. 


&& 


Climate... 
record high temperatures for March 19th. 


Burlington (btv).....60 set in 1894 
Montpelier (mpv).....57 set in 1968 
Massena New York (mss).....60 set in 1986 
St.Johnsbury (1v4)...71 set in 1903 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wgh 
near term...wgh 
short term...wgh 
long term...mb 
aviation...mb 
climate...wgh